5 Tool Blogger

Blast From The Past: Bryan Harvey

2007-03-13T23:03:00.000-07:00

I remember Harvey well. He was that dominant fireballing closer who just fell off the map in the mid nineties. I decided to find out a little more and look a little closer at Harvey's career. There's no better way to start my Blast From The Past series than with a fireballing country boy flameout from my childhood.

After leaving rural Catawba County for UNC-Charlotte in 1981, Harvey spent only a year in school. Harvey quit and went back home where he retread tires for a living and moved with his wife into a mobile home. He then worked as a furniture delivery man, playing softball in his spare time. In 1984, a former teammate called him and asked him to play in a semi-pro tournament that day. Word got around of Harvey's dominance that day and the Angels invited him for a tryout.

In 1985 he made his pro debut at Quad City in Single-A. He started out with a bang, going 5-6 with a 3.53 ERA, but striking out 111 in only 81.7 innings. His walk rate was a little high, but since no one was gonna hit him, it didn't really matter. The next year, in high A ball, he continued handing out free passes, strikeouts, and very little else. In AA Midland in 1987, he notched 20 saves while cutting back his walks, increasing his strikeouts to 13.25 every 9 innings, and lowering his ERA to 2.04. On May 16th of that season, he made his major league debut in some mopup duty for the Angels. His first batter was Cal Ripken, who struck out looking. Next he faced another future Hall of Famer, retiring Eddie Murray on a grounder to third. Then there was a taste of vintage Harvey. He walked Fred Lynn, threw two wild pitches and then stranded Lynn at third.

By 1988, Harvey was set to be a big factor in California's bullpen. Harvey adapted to the big leagues remarkably well, posting 17 saves, a 2.13 ERA, and 67 K's to only 20 BB's. He allowed earned runs in only 3 of his first 26 games that year, and his ERA wasn't higher than 2.47 all season. He finished 2nd to Mark McGwire in the Rookie of the Year balloting. Over the next two years, Harvey saved 50 more games for California, striking out batter after batter, but issuing far too many walks to be among the elite.

In 1991, however, Harvey turned a corner of sorts. Harvey finally exhibited some control, and it resulted in one of the greatest relief seasons of all time. He saved 46 games with a 1.60 ERA. Most remarkably, however, is that his ERA never got as high as 1.89. He never struggled with his control once during the season, and finished 5th in the Cy Young race. Through July 7 of that year, he pitched in 32 games, getting 22 saves in 39 innings, striking out 49 to only 5 walks. Harvey remained dominant in 1992 but was injured, limiting him to under 30 innings. Due to his injury, California left him unprotected in the expansion draft, whereupon he was selected with the 20th pick by the Florida Marlins. Harvey would be the bright spot of the Marlins' inaugural season, notching 45 saves with a 1.70 ERA. In 1994, though, the injury bug would rear its ugly head yet again, limiting Harvey to only 10.3 innings. He tried to return the following April, but after surrendering a 3 run homer to Glenallen Hill, Harvey blew out his elbow and left his season debut without getting an out. The pitch to Hill was the last Harvey would ever throw in a Major League Game.

After undergoing Tommy John surgery, the 34 year old Harvey returned in 1997 with a shot at Atlanta's bullpen in spring training, but suffered an untimely rib injury which kept him from making the roster. I remember being disappointed, because as a Braves fan I was convinced we had a real hidden gem in our camp that year. I was 13 at the time, so I didn't know to be skeptical of his health. He later latched on with the Marlins system again, but never reached the big league club.

In his career, Bryan Harvey made over $18 million in total salary, which isn't too bad for an old boy from Soddy-Daisy, TN. He saved 177 games, and averaged 10.42 K/9 over his career, a very impressive total. It's a real shame Harvey couldn't make a comeback, because he was one of the hardest throwing relievers of his era. He could really dial it up, and he was one of the best relievers in baseball when healthy. I guess he went back to Catawba County, but I'll still think of him whenever I see K-Rod whiffing hitter after hitter in that Angels uniform. I suppose if his son Kris ever reaches the bigs for the Marlins - he was last seen hitting homers, striking out, playing crappy defense, and doing not much of anything else in the low minors last year - I'll be reminded of Bryan as well.

Moneyball 2007: Arizona D-Backs

2007-03-12T12:01:00.000-07:00

Which teams are getting the most bang for their buck this year? Using Baseball Prospectus' MORP and depth charts, here's a team by team look, including any players expected to get at least 35% of the playing time, and the '07 salary will only depict what that team is forking out:
Note: DW refers to deadweight players - guys who won't play much but will be paid like they do.

ARIZONA '07 Salary '07 MORP
C: Miguel Montero ~$300,000 $10,250,000
C: Chris Snyder ~$300,000 $6,325,000
1B: Conor Jackson ~$350,000 $8,750,000
2B: Orlando Hudson $3,900,000 $16,550,000
3B: Chad Tracy $2,750,000 $11,825,000
SS: Stephen Drew $300,000 $13,125,000
LF: Eric Byrnes $4,575,000 $9,700,000
CF: Chris Young ~$300,000 $15,950,000
RF: Carlos Quentin ~$300,000 $12,500,000
SP: Brandon Webb $4,500,000 $20,425,000
SP: Randy Johnson $2,000,000 $7,550,000
SP: Livan Hernan. $7,000,000 $5,575,000
SP: Doug Davis $5,500,000 $8,575,000
SP: Edgar Gonzalez ~$300,000 $6,725,000
CL: Jose Valverde $2,000,000 $6,700,000
RP: Juan Cruz $1,437,500 $4,975,000
RP: Jorge Julio $3,600,000 $3,225,000
RP: Bran. Medders $390,500 $2,950,000
RP: Brandon Lyon $1,500,000 $1,600,000
DW: Tony Clark $1,000,000 $1,125,000

Total salary for key players: $42,303,000
Total MORP for key players: $174,400,000

This is what happens when you build from within and build really, really well. The value passes the cost before you even get out of the infield. Montero is a very good prospect and Snyder is a very capable backup. Conor Jackson isn't a worldbeater at first base, but he's not terrible. Orlando Hudson's defense is invaluable and probably the biggest reason for Brandon Webb's breakthrough last season. Speaking of Webb, PECOTA thinks he'll be this good for a while. That's awesome news for the D-Backs, and it makes overpaying for the last 2 years of Randy Johnson's contract a little easier to swallow. Josh Byrnes is one of the smartest young GMs in the game, and the prospects will keep rolling in after this year. You've got guys like Carlos Gonzalez, Mark Reynolds, Justin Upton, Micah Owings, and my sleeper Joey Side coming along in that system.

A few screws loos

2007-02-04T01:52:00.000-08:00

Oakland dumped righty reliever Kirk Saarloos off on Cincinnati last week for a minor league pitcher no one's heard of. Saarloos will never be dominant and relies on a good defense and a good bit of luck. He walks more hitters than he strikes out.

The A's on the other hand pick up David Shafer, a low walk, high strikeout guy who's not all that far away, in my opinion. He'll wind up in middle relief, but actually could be an effective one. Can't quite figure out what Krivsky saw in this deal, but I'm not too worried about it. Also, shouldn't the Reds be going after some young hitters? They've got more mediocre-yet-MLB-ready pitching than any team in baseball. The cupboard seems kinda bare on offense, though. Oh well.

* I haven't forgotten about the World Series countdown.. It's more time consuming and trade analysis is a little more topical and fun right now.

The Greatest World Series ever played: #40

2006-12-15T01:10:00.000-08:00

1996 - The Most Famous Hanging Slider of All-Time

For years, Yankees fans spent Octobers in an unusual way - watching the games on TV. In 1996, it had been 15 years since the Yankees had been to the Fall Classic, and 18 since they won. The Boss, the fans, and even Billy Crystal was getting restless. In 1995, they showed flashes of resurgence. In '96, they put it all together thanks to a new-look lineup. Gone was Don Mattingly, stalwart for years in pinstripes. In came a slugger made for Yankee stadium, Tino Martinez, who bashed his way to 25 home runs and 117 rbis on the season. Gone was the offensive black hole named Pat Kelly. In came Mariano Duncan, who hit .340 in a season to remember. The Yankees no longer relied on Black Jack McDowell or Sterling Hitchcock to start 50 games. Veterans Jimmy Key and Kenny Rogers were now on the staff. Most importantly, however, was the emergence of 3 young players who would form the foundation of the dynasty to be. Outfielder Bernie Williams went from a helpful outfielder with promise to a legitimate MVP candidate, hitting .305 with 29 HR and 102 rbi. 24 year old starter Andy Pettitte emerged as the ace of the staff, winning 21 games. Finally, a rookie shortstop named Derek Jeter took the league by storm. It was no coincidence they trusted him with a single digit jersey. Those aren't too easy to come by in Yankee Stadium. After starting the playoffs on a bad note with a loss to the Rangers, the Yankees rallied to 3 straight wins by a total of 4 runs. After dispatching of division rival Baltimore in the ALCS, Yankee nation was primed for it's first World Series appearance since the Reagan administration.

The National League's representative, however, was no spring chicken, so to speak. The Atlanta Braves had been here before. In fact, they'd won the National League in 4 of the last 5 years and were reigning champs. After sweeping the Dodgers in the first round, the Braves ran into trouble in the championship series with St. Louis. Atlanta ace John Smoltz beat the Cards in game one, but the redbirds reeled off three straight wins against Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Denny Neagle. Atlanta badly needed to make a statement in game 5 and send the series back to Atlanta. It did. An offensive barrage led to 14 runs while Smoltz held St. Louis scoreless. Game 6 offered Maddux a second chance, and he delivered a 3-1 victory. In game 7, Atlanta never gave the Cards a chance. Atlanta batted around in the first frame, scoring 6 runs on a hit batsmen and 5 hits, including a Tom Glavine triple. Glavine and two relievers held St. Louis scoreless and the Braves cruised to a 15-0 win and a chance to repeat. Atlanta carried one of its best teams to the postseason in '96, led by its legendary three starters. Tom Glavine (15-10, 2.98) and Greg Maddux (15-11, 2.72) had gotten the spotlight for years, but '96 was the year of John Smoltz, who proved nearly unbeatable on his way to a 24-8, 2.94 season. He notched 10 strikeouts in a game 12 times in his memorable season and was the clear #1 for the Braves. The Atlanta lineup was much the same as in '95, except with the addition of a superb teenage outfielder named Andruw Jones.

Game one took the teams to Yankee Stadium, and excitement was high. Smoltz' control was a bit off, issuing 5 walks, but Atlanta quickly deflated the New York crowd. In the 2nd, 19 year old Andruw Jones homered in his first at-bat, becoming the youngest player to hit a home run in the World Series. In the following inning, the Braves added to the lead with an offensive outburst. After 2 singles and a sac-bunt, with two men in scoring position, the Yankees brought the infield in, anticipating a bunt from Atlanta star third baseman Chipper Jones. Jones ripped a two run single, took 2nd on the throw, and promptly stole 3rd. Fred McGriff brought him in with a single, making it 5-0, and after a Javy Lopez walk, the young Jones was up again. This time he hit a 3 run homer, becoming the only player not named Gene Tenace to homer in his first two WS ab's. The score was 8-0, and the Yankees didn't recover. Atlanta cruised to a 12-1 victory.

With its wealth of starters, Atlanta sent out another ace in game two, Greg Maddux. The Yankees avoided any big Atlanta innings, but Fred McGriff drove in a run in each of his first three at-bats, and Maddux dominated. The Braves won 4-0, taking a huge 2-0 Series lead and, more importantly, were headed back to Atlanta.

In game 3, Atlanta trotted out yet another ace, Tom Glavine, the hero of the previous World Series. David Cone held Atlanta scoreless for 5 innings while New York built a 2-0 lead. In the 6th, Atlanta threatened, loading the bases with 2 outs. Ryan Klesko then drew an rbi walk which brought NLCS MVP Javy Lopez to the plate. Cone induced an inning-ending pop-up, however, and the Yankees held onto a 2-1 lead. Atlanta pinch-hit for Glavine in the 7th and replaced him with Greg McMichael in the 8th. McMichael immediately gave up a single to Derek Jeter and then a homer to Bernie Williams. This sealed the game for the Yankees, who would go on to win 5-2.

Game 4 featured the Gambler, Kenny Rogers, going up against Denny Neagle. Rogers proved ineffective, and a dismal 2nd inning was nearly New York's undoing. Fred McGriff led off with a homer, Mariano Duncan failed to cover first on a Jeff Blauser bunt, and Marquis Grissom ripped a two-run double. The Braves had a 4-0 lead and yet another rout appeared to be on. Atlanta added insurance runs in the 3rd and 5th, and seemed to be on cruise control until a controversial 6th inning. Derek Jeter popped up into foul territory in right field, but the RF umpire interfered with Jermaine Dye's attempt to catch it, giving Jeter a second chance. He singled, Bernie Williams walked, Cecil Fielder hit an RBI single which also brought in Williams on a Dye error, and Gerald Hayes hit another RBI single. The lead was suddenly cut in half, and the Braves went to the bullpen, bringing in young Terrell Wade. Wade issued a walk to Darryl Strawberry and out trotted Bobby Cox again, this time bringing in Mike Bielecki, who admirably notched 3 straight strikeouts. One of Bielecki's strikeout victims was Paul O'Neill, pinch hitting for catcher Joe Girardi. In the bottom of the 6th, the Yankees brought in backup Jim Leyritz to take over at backstop. In the 8th, Atlanta brought in ace reliever Mark Wohlers to seal the deal. On the first play, Gerald Hayes hit a dribbler down the third base line. Rather than fielding and throwing out Hayes (whose speed can be clocked with a sundial), Jones waited to see if the ball went foul. It didn't, and the Yankees had a baserunner. Strawberry singled, and Duncan hit a hard grounder which wasn't fielded cleanly. It wound up as a force, and the Yankees had men on 2nd and 3rd. Next up was backup catcher Leyritz. On what would be remembered as one of the greatest World Series moments of all time, Leyritz connected on a hanging slider for a game tying, three run homer.

The game went to extra frames, when Atlanta reliever Steve Avery surrendered another run in the 10th. A mental error by reliever Brad Clontz led to a Ryan Klesko error later in the inning and John Wetteland closed out the wild, 8-6 Yankee victory. The series was tied, and Atlanta's momentum was completely gone.

Game 5 proved to be another one for the ages, but not for momentum shifts and big home runs. Rather, game 5 was a matchup between two 20 game winners who pitched like 20 game winners. Young Andy Pettitte pitched the game of his life, as did John Smoltz. Neither allowed an earned run, but in the 4th inning, Atlanta suffered yet another defensive gaffe as Marquis Grissom dropped a flyball and the Yankees capitalized with a run. It was all they needed, and Pettitte held the Braves in check before giving way to Wetteland in the 9th. The Yankees had done the impossible, winning all three in Atlanta, taking the series lead, and sending the series back to New York needing only to win one more.

Game 6 featured a rematch of Maddux-Key, and the Yankees struck first. A 4-hit 3rd inning gave them a 3-0 lead. Maddux got back on track and left it up to the offense. In the 4th, a Jermaine Dye bases-loaded walk cut the lead to 3-1. In the 5th, however, after Marquis Grissom was called out trying for a double, Bobby Cox went out to argue and on his way back to the dugout was ejected. This drew a bit of controversy as Cox was finished making his case and the ejection was certainly delayed. The Braves wouldn't pose a threat until the top of the 9th. Klesko singled, Terry Pendleton singled, and Atlanta had runners at 1st and 3rd. After a Luis Polonia strikeout, Marquis Grissom hit a single, scoring Klesko and sending pinch runner Rafael Belliard to 2nd. With 2 outs and a runner in scoring position, Mark Lemke came to the plate. Lemke had a reputation for clutch postseason hitting but couldn't come through, popping up in foul territory to third baseman Charlie Hayes. The Yankees had dropped two at home but won 4 straight against one of the best pitching staffs ever assembled. The heroes of the series were John Wetteland, who saved all 4 wins, Bernie Williams, Derek Jeter, and of course Jim Leyritz.

Why was the Series great? It had several great contests, including the Leyritz shot in game 4 and the amazing pitching duel in game 5. Andruw Jones made history and the series ended with a one run win with a man in scoring position.

Why wasn't it great? 4 straight wins by the Yankees, and the first three games weren't particularly exciting. Also, the series was marred by some terrible defense from both teams. Still, one of the better 4-2 series in memory.

The 41 Greatest World Series Ever Played: #41

2006-12-14T02:07:00.000-08:00

1969 - Amazin'

Since their inception in 1962, the New York Mets were the laughing stock of baseball. In 1962 they were the worst team to ever play, winning only 40 of their 160 games. They endured a lovable loser tag for years, until 1969. In the summer of '69, the Mets overcame a poor start to make a push for the playoffs. The Chicago Cubs, however, still led the division in mid August by 9 1/2 games. They were playing so well, shortstop Ernie Banks remarked that the Cubs should play extra games just for fun. "Let's Play Two" doomed the Cubs, who completely fell apart in September, clearing the way for the Mets to blow past them on their way to an 8 game lead in the brand new National League East. In the first ever NL Championship Series, the "Amazin's" swept the Atlanta Braves, 3 to 0, and were headed to an improbable first World Series appearance.

Baltimore's road to the World Series was quite different. Just three years earlier, the O's had won the 1966 World Series and then established themselves as the prominent team in the American League. They cruised to an AL West championship by 19 games, winning 109. Like the Mets, the Orioles swept their opponent in the ALCS 3-0. Heading into the Series, the Orioles were the clear favorite to win the title.

Game one saw a matchup of Cy Young winners, Mike Cuellar, who won 23 games, against New York's young ace, Tom Seaver, himself a winner of 25. However, on Seaver's second pitch, Orioles rightfielder Don Buford launched a home run to right field. As he rounded 2nd base, he told Al Weis, "You ain't seen nuthin' yet." With a lineup that featured stars Boog Powell, Frank Robinson, and Brooks Robinson, Buford had good reason to be confident. Cuellar pitched well and Baltimore cruised to a 4-1 win, prompting many to predict a short, quick series. They would be right.

In game two, the Orioles sent out their other 20 game winner, Dave McNally. Like game one, the Mets were sending out a young gun, this time Jerry Koosman. Like Seaver, he was in his third season. Like Seaver, Koosman's inexperience was supposed to work against him. McNally was on target, but Koosman matched him unexpectedly. Mets OF Donn Clendenon led off the 4th with a home run against McNally while Koosman stifled the O's, not allowing a hit for 6 innings. In the 7th, however, Baltimore struck, tying the game. In the 9th, McNally's dominance ran out. He gave up 3 straight singles and Ron Taylor shut the door on the O's with a scoreless 9th. The O's had managed only 2 hits in the 2-1 loss, and the series was tied heading to New York.

The Orioles put their trust in young star Jim Palmer in game 3. Unfortunately, they weren't ready for the Tommie Agee show. Agee did his best Don Buford impression and led off the game with a home run. Mets starter Gary Gentry helped himself out with a two-run double in the 2nd, and he wouldn't allow a hit until the 4th inning. In the 4th, however, the Baltimore all-star lineup threatened, putting runners on 1st and 3rd with two outs. Ellie Hendricks ripped a shot to center, but Agee came from nowhere to make a stunning snowcone catch.

Three innings later, Agee would match the feat, making a diving catch with runners on to bail out Gentry yet again. Agee's play in game 3 was arguably the turning point of the series, leading New York to a 5-0 victory and a 2-1 Series lead.

Game 4 saw a rematch of Cuellar and Seaver, and Tom "Terrific" lived up to his nickname, scattering 6 hits and holding the O's scoreless for 8 innings. In the 9th, however, with only a one run lead, Seaver ran into trouble. Back to back singles left runners at the corners with future Hall of Fame 3B Brooks Robinson at the plate. Robinson hit a line drive to right, but Ron Swoboda was there, making a diving back-handed catch. Frank Robinson would tag up to tie, but the catch saved the inning as Seaver got out of the jam. Seaver came back out in the 10th and continued to baffle O's hitters. In the bottom half of the 10th, Don Buford misplayed a Jerry Grote hit which allowed him to reach second. It wouldn't be the end of Baltimore's defensive struggles. With two men on, pitcher Pete Richert fielded a sacrifice bunt and skimmed the runner with the throw, sending the ball into right field. The go-ahead run came around, Earl Weaver argued to no avail, and the Mets were suddenly up 3-1 in the series.

Game 5 featured a rematch of game 2's talented starters, McNally and Koosman. The Orioles got to Koosman early when McNally hit a 2 run homer in the 3rd, followed up by a Frank Robinson solo shot. McNally cruised until the 6th, when a famous play took place that changed the course of the game. Cleon Jones jumped out of the way of a shoestring pitch, but immediately claimed it hit him. After examining the ball, evidence of shoe polish was found, and Jones was awarded first base. Donn Clendenon, the next batter, hit a two run homer to get the Mets back into the game. In the 7th, 2B Al Weis homered (don't you think he wished he could've jogged by Don Buford at that moment and smiled?) to tie the game. In the 8th the Mets scored twice on doubles and a key error by Boog Powell. Koosman remained on the mound and finished out the 5-3 win, finishing what was seen by many to be the closest thing baseball had to a miracle. The "Miracle Mets" not only beat the Baltimore Orioles, but did so in 5 games.

Why was this series great? The key defense of the Mets, the underdog story, the great pitching on both sides.

Why not as great as others? The games weren't particularly close or didn't come down to the last atbat very much. The Mets won by 3 games, so there was never a sense of shared urgency out on the field. That said, this is the greatest 5 game series ever played. Amazin' indeed.

Who Will The Next Fool Be?

2006-11-30T13:27:00.000-08:00

"After all is said and done / You won't be satisfied with anyone / So after you get rid of me / Who will the next fool be?"

For my triumphant return to 5 Tool Blogger, there's only one topic fitting for such a return - the NCAA coaching carousel. We'll go school by school:

The World Is Not Enough

It's a classic tale that repeats itself all the time. Coach meets school, school likes coach, school hires coach, coach wins his first 24 games, and goes to a BCS bowl in each of his first 3 seasons. He never has a losing record, and takes his team to bowl games in each of his 6 seasons, including two National Championship appearances. Coach recruits thugs, coach loses control of said thugs, coach gets fired, thugs rule supreme, and the cheese stands alone. The operative question here is: What the hell happened?

It really starts with Butch Davis. He got the swagger back in the 90's, and cleaned up a program that was honestly very lucky to be allowed to play. I don't know if any school came as close as the U to receiving the death penalty as Miami since SMU got it years ago. Throughout the late 90's, Miami made a habit of losing to the better teams and absolutely slaughtering everyone else. The recruits were flowing back in, and the U was poised for a big step up when Davis bolted for the NFL, leaving the job to offensive coordinator Larry Coker, a player favorite. Coker went 35-3 in his first 3 years, and went to 3 BCS bowls. While 2004 was a bit of a disappointment, they were still a fairly dominant team and didn't lose a single game by more than 7 points. In 2005 the defense continued its dominance and Miami cruised to a 9-2 regular season record. Both losses were within 4 points. Then it all came crashing down in the Peach Bowl, when the thug bit caught up to them. It wasn't so much the 40-3 asspounding at the hands of LSU that infuriated the Miami brass and the rest of the nation. It was Miami's decision to start a brawl with LSU's players. If anyone wants to know how the brawl went, here's a hint: The next time Miami picked on opposing players, it was Florida International. 2006 was a bit harsh on Coker, and his team really struggled at times, mostly with themselves. The Canes are 6-6 and headed to the MPC Computers Bowl to take on Nevada, where the players will inevitably dance all over the Wolfpack logo before getting their asses handed to them. And then there's the whole can of worms involving the FIU brawl. Or was it FAU? Does it matter?

To be fair, though, this isn't completely Coker's fault. Even Butch Davis had trouble getting rid of the thuggish image down there (remember his star LB, Ray Lewis?). A blowup like this has been stewing for years and years. The air of superiority down there is ridiculous, especially these days when it isn't even accurate. U of M graduates who are now in the NFL generally refuse to train in the offseason with their team, opting instead to train in Miami (which really makes you wonder - why in the hell would ANYONE opt to train down at Miami's piss-poor facilities when an NFL complex is at your disposal?). The Jeremy Shockey, Clinton Portis, Edgerrin James, and Kellen "F****** Sol'ja" Winslow attitude has been brewing down there since the Warren Sapp days. Why did this all fall on Coker's shoulders? What did he do differently?

Coker is 58-15 in his career, nearly .800.
He handled his rival, FSU, pretty well, going 5-2 against the Noles.
Miami's old rival, Florida, was owned by Coker, who went 3-0 against the Gators in their down years.

Really, he was more successful than Butch Davis, and arguably a better football coach. Davis would routinely get stomped by FSU or VT or, cough, UCLA, but Coker generally only lost close games. The Canes came to play, and were always competitive under Coker. I somewhat understand the decision behind the firing, but Miami should know - the pressure is on them, the school: If they don't bring in someone to absolutely clean house, the same thing will happen again. Coker was a victim of the U. It's that U mentality that's killing the program - someone needs to make it Miami again instead of "The U." Coker had one down year (Butch Davis once went 5-6 after winning the Big East) and he's still taking them to a bowl. It was a supposedly necessary firing, but it was a dangerous one. They have to get a coach who commands the respect of those players, which won't be easy. Second, they have to get a coach who will clean up the image down there.

Now, with it being such a dangerous job, the sorts that will be open to it will be varying and peculiar. From what I can gather, here are the candidates so far:

- Randy Shannon - The current DC at Miami, the players are big fans of his. He's constructed one hell of a defense in recent years, and is a very good coach. I don't think he's the right fit, however. Miami needs someone new to come in, like I said, and clean house. If this were about football, then Shannon would be a great choice. This is about discipline and righting a ship, though, and I'm just not sure Shannon would be the man for that job.

- Jim Leavitt - Now, realize I use the word "candidate" loosely. I'm not reporting on who is most likely to get the job - only offering my opinions on the guys being linked with the job. The current head coach at South Florida is the only football coach the Bulls have ever had, and I think he's due for a bigger job at some point. He's certainly earned it. The Bulls have always been competitive, and they've beaten, make that whipped, some physically superior teams in recent years. I don't know much about Leavitt, other than he has been huge for that program. Hell, if he stays even 5 more years, the Bulls might end up playing in Leavitt Stadium one day. He's chiefly responsible for improving South Florida's facilities, and he is as dedicated to a school as I've ever seen. If Miami can pry him away, they'd be fools not to seriously, seriously consider him. Odds are, though, he'll stay at South Florida.

- Steve Kragthorpe - The head coach at Tulsa is equally unlikely to leave, and I'm really not sure why Miami would pursue him. I'll give him credit - he turned a terrible, terrible Tulsa program into a mediocre one almost overnight. In '01-02 under Keith Burns they were 2-21. In Kragthorpe's first two years they were 12-13. Kragthorpe, though, is still building in Tulsa, and I don't think he's going anywhere.

- Chuck Amato - This is really just a curiosity of mine. The one thing always holding Amato back was a lack of great recruits. He turned up a lot of great players, but at Miami he would really be able to put his recruiting talents to good use. He's familiar with the area from his days at FSU, and would be an interesting choice if it came down to it.

- Any number of hot assistants out there. David Cutcliffe, Jimbo Fisher, and many others come to mind. Who knows what will happen with this job? Too bad SOS turned them down - he would be PERFECT for that job. I think Fisher is the more realistic candidate here, but I don't think they're too serious about him.

- The rest of the names I've heard mentioned:
Steve Mariucci (no)
Jeff Tedford (hell no)
Jim Harbaugh (Miami doesn't have the guts)
Barry Alvarez (fuhgettaboutit)
Jim Grobe (yeah, right)
Mike Leach - something to keep your eye on. He's slowly moving up the ranks, from Kentucky to Texas Tech, and is supposedly interested in the job. If he can recruit those south Florida athletes, his system would really be impressive down there.

What I think should happen: I think Miami should go after Texas Tech's Leach or USF's Leavitt. If they both turn them down, go after Kragthorpe, if Arizona State doesn't snatch him up first.

What will happen: Well, Leach's name is certainly getting passed around, but the frontrunner at this point looks like Randy Shannon. I'd say Kragthorpe is probably 2nd along with Leach right now.

UGA Running Backs - Week 2

2006-09-09T21:25:00.000-07:00

The 6-20-28 Quandry

For explanation as to what I'm doing, check last week's College Football roundup. I'll designate any runs with less than 7:30 left in the 4th quarter and a two score lead with (late clock runs).

Kregg Lumpkin -
9 yards on 1st & 10
5 yards on 2nd & 1
6 yards on 1st & 10
2 yards on 2nd & 5
2 yards on 1st & 10
(late clock runs) 2 yards on 1st & 15
4 yards on 2nd & 13
6 yards on 3rd & 9

8 rushes for 36 yards. No negative runs yet again for Lump. 32/73 needed yards, good for 43.8%. However, take away those 4th quarter time killing runs, and it goes to 20/36, a 55.6%.

Danny Ware -
3 yards on 1st & 10
2 yards on 1st & 10
16 yards on 2nd & 10
6 yards on 1st & 10
7 yards on 2nd & 4
0 yards on 1st & GL (9)
9 yards on 3rd & GL (9) (TD)
-1 yards on 2nd & 7
1 yard on 2nd & 3

9 carries for 43 yards. He got 34/72 needed yards, a 47.2%. Danny didn't have any meaningless 4th Qtr carries, so this number is pretty accurate.

Thomas Brown:
3 yards on 2nd & 8
0 yards on 1st & 10
11 yards on 1st & 10
5 yards on 1st & 10
2 yards on 1st & 10
-2 yards on 1st & GL (2)
8 yards on 1st & 10
-1 yard on 1st & 10
3 yards on 2nd & 11
4 yards on 1st & 10
3 yards on 2nd & 6
13 yards on 2nd & 10
7 yards on 1st & 10
(late clock runs) 3 yards on 1st & 10
1 yard on 2nd & 7
9 yards on 3rd & 6

16 carries for 69 yards. He got 62/140 needed yards. That's 44.3%. Take out his 4th quarter time killers and it's 49/117, or 41.9%.

So, for this game, on runs that really mattered, here's how much of the needed yardage each back accumulated:
Kregg Lumpkin - 55.6%
Danny Ware - 47.2%
Thomas Brown - 41.9%

For the season, after two games, here are the raw rushing totals for all the backs:
Thomas Brown: 26 carries for 96 yards.
Danny Ware: 15 carries for 111 yards.
Kregg Lumpkin:13 carries for 62 yards.

Stuffed (runs of 2 yards or less):
Thomas Brown: 8
Danny Ware: 4
Kregg Lumpkin:3

Yards Gained/Yards Needed:
Thomas Brown: 73/199... 36.7% of needed yards
Danny Ware: 58/119... 48.7% of needed yards
Kregg Lumpkin: 45/85... 52.9% of needed yards

What does this tell us? Well, after two weeks, it's clear that Kregg Lumpkin should hold a slight edge over Danny Ware for the starting job. One thing is for sure - Thomas Brown is going to have to work hard if he wants to help this offense like the other two on the ground.

Beginnings

2006-09-05T14:12:00.000-07:00

Fall is here. Sure, it's still hot. Yesterday was labor day. No matter. It's college football season. The rites of autumn are upon us, and while this past weekend was not an historic day, it should not be ignored. Here's the 5 Tool Blogger's take on everything that happened this weekend.

Vote Like A Champion Today

Notre Dame traveled to Atlanta to face Jon Tenuta's tenacious defense on Saturday and came away with a 14-10 win. Notre Dame played well and while it could be argued that the Irish got a little help from the officials (http://http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/ajc/sportscolumns/entries/2006/09/03/tech_cant_finis.html?imw=Y) they did well with what was in their power. Brady Quinn didn't look like himself at first glance, but this Tech defense is underrated. Quinn played well and is still a solid Heisman candidate. No, Notre Dame didn't light up the scoreboard like they were accustomed to last year, but did everyone not notice another difference? The Irish defense sure looked good. The same one that gave up 617 yards to Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl last year. The knock on Notre Dame all along was that their defense wouldn't be able to play well enough for them to go undefeated. While things may not be solved, they've clearly made a massive improvement. Tech, with 4th year starter QB Reggie Ball and all-world WR Calvin Johnson are no slouches on offense. Yes, Chan Gailey stopped feeding Johnson the ball in the second half. Still, give some credit to the Irish defense. They really came out with a 617 yard chip on their shoulder and played quite well, leading the Irish to a win.

Yet, this weekend was a losing one for the Irish. How so? Well, the coaches decided to drop Notre Dame to 4th in the rankings, which is foolish for several reasons. The voters put Notre Dame at 2nd in the preseason because they have a dominant offense. The only questions were on defense, and those were answered. They're dropping Notre Dame for not whipping Georgia Tech, a team known for playing good defense, especially in big games? Ohio State held onto the top spot, which is fine. They played well against a somewhat quality opponent. Texas, however, replaced the Irish at #2. Yes, Texas, the team with a freshman quarterback. A team who must have really impressed voters by beating North Texas. Sure, Texas did what they were supposed to do, but is beating North Texas reason for a two spot jump in the rankings? USC struggled to put away a mediocre Arkansas team, and they moved ahead of Notre Dame. The Trojans sure made it look better by putting up 27 late, late points. That game was a 9 point game at halftime, though.

What I find amazing is all the cries of, "Notre Dame's overrated!" The naysayers may be right, but none of them know why. They keep changing their reasons. First, it was the defense. Now, it's the offense? Or was it that Georgia Tech shouldn't play that well against a great team? It's all ridiculous. If Notre Dame really disappointed so much, why was the game line set at 6.5 points? Shouldn't they have been favored by 24 or so if this win (WIN, I say!) was such a letdown? At least the bookies in Vegas have a grasp on what's actually going on. I'll admit that Tech isn't the toughest venue to play at, but Jon Tenuta is a fantastic coordinator. Notre Dame was the only team to go on the road and play a tough team and win, other than Florida State. Does that not count for something?

Bobby Petrino Helps Narrow Down the Heisman watch list

I'm glad running up the score on Kentucky was more important than keeping your potential All-American running back healthy. Michael Bush was probably going to be a top 15 pick next April. Now he'll be one of those risky picks, a la Willis McGahee. I hear the snapping of Tyrone Prothro's leg in the back of my mind as I look at this situation. When will coaches learn to bench their superstars, especially the really important ones, when they have big leads?

I've got the ACC Blues

Goodness, what a bad weekend for what is supposed to be a conference as deep as the SEC. While the SEC's bottom feeders were beating the spread against Michigan, putting up a fight against Louisville, beating Memphis, and holding a Steve Spurrier team to 15 points, the ACC's "middle" teams were struggling to beat Central Michigan, or worse, William & Mary. I realize that Maryland led W&M 27-7, but that's entirely too close for a self respecting BCS conference school to stand for. Still, what happened to the ACC?
Boston College allowed Central Michigan to play within a TD for the latter half of the 3rd quarter and then again for the final 4 minutes of the game.
Maryland was never in danger of losing, but they lost 4 turnovers to William & Mary and was nearly outplayed, despite the points falling in their favor.
UNC lost to Rutgers 21-16 without ever having the lead, and turned the ball over 3 times. They gave up 201 yards on the ground to Raymell Rice.
Wake Forest beat Syracuse 20-10. Some pundits thought Wake could turn some heads this year. This isn't the sort of performance which does that.
Virginia was dominated by Pitt. This ain't the Pitt of the Tony Dorsett days. This ain't even Larry Fitzgerald's Panthers.
The ACC's only good performances were from Georgia Tech, a team that lost, Virginia Tech and Clemson, who beat up on terrible schools, and the FSU-Miami game. After watching Duke lose to Richmond, I have to wonder what was in the water where the notion that the ACC was on par with the SEC was born.

Second Chances

Dan Hawkins better pray the Buff faithful believe in second chances. Losing 19-10 to Montana State, Colorado's first ever D1-AA opponent, is NOT what they had in mind when they hired the brains behind Boise State's recent run. I guess the key to the Broncos' success was, uh, not playing Montana State.

Running Dawg Wild

Much to my dismay, last year's Georgia Bulldog rushing statistics aren't available, aside from basic stats, so I've decided to keep my own. Last year, Kregg Lumpkin not only averaged the most yards per carry, but he was incredibly adept at never losing yards. Now, unfortunately, my knowledge of that stat is but a faint memory, and I am vowing not to have that happen again. So here I'll document every run of the season for Thomas Brown, Danny Ware, and my pick as the best of the three, Kregg Lumpkin.

Brown: -3 yards, 5 yards, 0 yards, 4 yards, 5 yards, 8 yards, 2 yards (TD), 2 yards, 3 yards, 0 yards. However, simply logging the distances isn't telling enough, b/c a 2 yard run on 3rd and 1 is more valuable than a 5 yard run on 3rd and 9, so this may get more complicated. I'll look at how many yards were needed for each back, so here we go with Brown -
Gained... Needed
-3.... 10
5... 13
0... 10
4... 10
5... 6
8... 10
2 (TD)... 1
2... 10
3 (1st)... 2
0... 10

Ware:
3... 8
6 (1st)... 3
8... 10
4... 10
41 (TD)... 6
6... 10

Lumpkin:
11 (1st)... 10
10 (1st)... 10
2... 10
2 (TD)... 2
1... 17

So. Ware had the highest % of carries over 4 yards and Lumpkin moved the chains the most times. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out over the season. When it comes to getting the Dawgs closer to a first down,
Brown gained 29.3% of needed yards.
Ware gained 63.8% of needed yards.
Lump gained 51 % of needed yards, but most come on that 2nd and 17 rush. Without that rush, it's 75%. It'll be interesting to see who starts against the Gamecocks, but I think it should be Lumpkin. Considering what he did last year, he's certainly the best running back UGA has when it comes to moving the ball. Thomas Brown, I think, is a better option in the passing game, and by the looks of his first performance, he needs whatever edge he can get.

Enjoy.

Falcon Crest

2006-08-23T15:52:00.000-07:00

*** As for my "Midnight Train" series, it'll have to be put on hold for now. I'm in a new apartment, and my resources are somewhat limited. However, here's my NFL preview for my hometown Atlanta Falcons ***

2005: You know, after the Minnesota game, there was reason to be excited. The Falcons had a turnover differential of +4 for the season, a 3-1 record, and only a loss to a very good Seattle team. Unfortunately, the Minnesota game would be the high point of the season. Our offense wouldn't play as well, and our defense would go from an elite performance into defensive hell. The low point of the season had to be the final game against Carolina. How terrible. However, I blame some of the Falcons' misfortunes on bad luck. Or at least, the disappearance of it. In fact, I'm gonna make a bold statement:The '05 Falcons didn't play that much more poorly than the '04 Falcons. In fact, if you look at overall performance, both teams were probably 8-8 teams, but the '04 squad really had things that went their way. The '05 offense was better, the best it's been since '02. The '05 defense, however, was much worse. I don't think the '04 defense was that great, but it was good. 2002 was the only time in the Vick era that our defense has truly been special.

Strategy and tendencies: The Falcons are a stubborn team. Only the Pittsburgh Steelers use 3 receiver sets less often than the Falcons. No team runs the ball in the first half more than the Falcons. Only 3 teams ran more period, and that was probably b/c they had late leads to help. One was the Steelers, another was the 11-5 Bears, and the third was the 13-3 Broncos. So, needless to say, no team prefers to run as much as the Falcons, though some do out of necessity. The Falcons, when they run, try their best to protect Warrick Dunn - we used a fullback on 83% of all rushing attempts. The Falcons almost never opt to pass in short yardage situations, and even when behind late in the game, still prefer to run. That may change as our receiving corps develops and if/when Vick grasps the offensive scheme. Also, the Falcons were one of the best teams in the NFL in the redzone, much in part to TJ Duckett - the only place he excelled. On defense, the Falcons rarely, if ever, blitz a defensive back. We don't get many sacks from the linebackers either, although that could change with Hartwell's return. The Falcons' biggest defensive strength is DeAngelo Hall, as they were the 5th best team in terms of #1 CB vs. #1 WR. He didn't just shut down TO - he nearly shut down everyone he was up against. The Falcons' hidden strength remains to be special teams, as they've been one of the 6 best units in the league in 4 of the last 5 years.

The QBs: Matt Schaub has turned into a very good backup quarterback, and the Falcons have been wise to hold onto him. He most certainly could help nab them a shot at Adrian Peterson or MarShawn Lynch in next year's draft to replace Warrick Dunn, who doesn't have a lot of gas left in the tank. Still, Schaub is as good an example as any of Atlanta's troubles at WR. For anyone who thinks Vick struggles to find receivers, his completion percentage edged Schaub's by 2.9%. As for Vick, he has made some strides, and improved last year, in my opinion. He's on the cusp of something special, but there's still a big leap ahead of him. I do think this is the year he eclipses 3000 yards, and I've never said that before. At #3 is either DJ Shockley or Bryan Randall. Randall is probably the better option to play should some very bad things happen, but DJ has the real future as a serviceable backup. By '07, he could easily be Vick's backup, with Randall still at #3.

The RBs: Warrick Dunn. I sure do like the guy, but I hope you took pictures last year, because this ain't happening again. If I'm wrong, I'm ecstatic. I just can't see a 31 year old coming off a 5.1 yards per carry, 1416 yard season, even remotely matching it. I expect 4.0, 1000 yards this season. It's not Dunn's fault, just the nature of the game. Trading Duckett doesn't leave a huge hole in the offense per se, but he was valuable near the goal line for the most part. Vick ran a lot less last year, but he was still very, very good when he did, and was probably one of the better running backs in the league, so to speak. Justin Griffith is a good go-to guy, and the Falcons know how to use him. Interestingly, our best runner on a per-play basis last year was Matt Schaub, almost laughingly getting 78 yards on 7 running plays. Newcomer Jerious Norwood has speed to burn, and he's almost a carbon copy of Warrick Dunn. When he spells Dunn, he'll fit perfectly. However, don't expect any Duckettness from him. I sometimes get the feeling he runs scared like Barry Sanders used to. Not a problem unless you're at the 1 yard line trying to push it over.

WRs: I'm not sure who to call #1, be it Michael Jenkins or Roddy White. Last year, Jenkins was supposed to be our #1, but we never threw to him. He wasn't particularly good, but he sure wasn't bad. His catch % needs to improve from it's current level of 51, but that will happen as both he and Vick gain experience. White, on the other hand, has much more talent and looks like our future #1. Last year, he was VERY good in the redzone, and considering he was a rookie, wasn't that bad. Especially with little time at training camp. He's a speed guy and would be best utilized on deep routes but he displayed the kind of ability at times that makes me think he could be very good as a #1. Which brings us to... Ashley Lelie. He's built like White, has speed like White (faster, I think), but just hasn't capitalized on that talent in the same way. He's a burner, that much is certain. Only Taylor Jacobs of the Redskins last year was more exclusively a fly route guy than Lelie. He has good size, so I'm not sure what has held him back, but the Broncos coaching staff AND fans realized quickly that he was only good for one thing. When he comes down with catches, they'll be big gains. As long as the Falcons understand his apparent weaknesses (like Duckett's) and utilize his strengths, he should be a very good #3 receiver. Our tight ends may be blockers, but I'll cover that in the O-line section. Crumpler the receiver is one of the best in football. He doesn't make as many of his catches (55%) as most of the best (Gates' 64% or Gonzalez' 67%), but Vick relies on him more than most. He threw to Alge more than any WR on the team. With the maturation of Jenkins & White and the addition of Lelie, Alge should be able to become a tad more obscure, and thus more deadly. Duckett was a surprisingly good receiver, despite the Falcons rarely throwing to him. Dunn remains a pretty good receiver, hauling in 78% of passes, but he never did much once he caught the ball. Justin Griffith is our best threat out of the backfield in the receiving game, as he had 3 TD catches last year as a solid redzone target. Unfortunately, Vick relied on him a bit too much and brought down his production, but he's a weapon nonetheless.

Offensive Line: I really like the way we block for our running game, and obviously the line is a strength. However, I'm a little iffy on losing Kevin Shaffer, but hopefully Wayne Gandy will buy into and execute what we do. The only direction in which we struggle to run is straight up the middle, but we're among the best in the league at running at or outside the tackles. That's another reason Norwood has a big future here. One could ask that they protect Vick more, and while they aren't an elite pass blocking line by any means, many of the sacks are Vick's fault. Someone needs to teach him how to drop back, b/c he often runs into blockers and pressures himself.

Defensive front 7: Ok, if anyone tries to pass on Atlanta, they're going to run into problems. Patrick Kerney, John Abraham, Rod Coleman, Jonathan Babineaux, Demorrio Williams, Ed Hartwell, and Keith Brooking ALL play better against the pass than the run. Today, the Falcons added Grady Jackson, a tackle who can stuff the run. Not only does Jackson make the play against the run more often than anyone else in Atlanta, but he puts himself in position to more often. That's gonna translate to big things for this defense. If Michael Boley can be a force against the run from the outside, hopefully it'll force the opposing teams to pass more, which is good for Atlanta.

Secondary: The addition of Chris Crocker means more support for the rushing defense, and honestly DeAngelo Hall isn't that bad against the run. I personally think he's a very good corner, but he still has some holes in his game. I mentioned that #1 WRs struggled against Atlanta, but that is as much because of other factors as of DeAngelo. For example, the Falcons were pretty much the easiest team to run against, so why pass? Second, the safeties were SO bad at, well, everything, it'd be wiser to throw to them. Jimmy Williams has a lot of basics to learn before he's ready to start, but he's very talented. Jason Webster is underrated and he'll be good to have back. Lawyer Milloy won't help against the run, but he'll be better against the pass.

Special Teams: I've already said that ST is Atlanta's underrated specialty, except you'd be surprised where they're so good. Most people think I'm referring to Allen Rossum, and while that was the case in 2004, it no longer is. Atlanta was actually pretty bad last year in the return game. Where they make their bread & butter, however, is kicking. Michael Koenen looks like one heck of a talented kicker, and when coupled with Atlanta's very good coverage team, the Falcons have a deadly kicking unit. They finished 1st in the NFL on Net Kicking yards last season and 4th in Net Punting. Todd Peterson was good, and I'm not sure why we let him go. I'd like to see Koenen have the shot to double up, b/c he certainly has the talent.

Overall: This team has a lot of big question marks, but enough talent to win games regardless of how the questions are answered. My gut feeling says wild card.

The 5 biggest questions that will decide where between the 7-9 threshold and the 12-4 mark they'll finish:
5. Will anyone step up on the return game and restore Atlanta to it's once proud status as a team to be feared when kicking to?
4. Will someone fill TJ Duckett's shoes as the big guy in the red zone?
3. Can Michael Vick continue to improve with the offense, staying healthy and spreading the ball around?
2. Will a receiver establish himself as a legitimate, trustworthy #1?
1. Can the Falcons stop the run?

Midnight Train To Obscurity - Part 2

2006-08-14T22:52:00.000-07:00

Continuing from the last entry, we begin with...

1992:
Andres Santana, 2B, SF - Santana was a switch hitter with fantastic speed, but had such little power he was unable to crack the major league lineup after being considered the best 2B prospect in the game over Bret Boone. Santana had made his debut in 1990 for a primarily pinch running 6 game stint. Two years later he was considered a top prospect. A year later the Giants figured out he wasn't and traded him to the Marlins for Brian Griffiths. Santana would never play another major league game - a rarity for a "top prospect." Usually they don't play their last game at age 22.

Eddie Zosky, SS, TOR - Zosky was considered by scouts to be a defensive stalwart with a rifle arm. Well, that's great, but if you can't hit, you just can't play. Zosky was coming off a '91 campaign in which he showed the Blue Jays some defensive talent and did very little at the plate. Those 18 games would end up a career high. For some weird reason, he kept hanging around with organization after organization, and despite playing only 6 games in a 6 year period, the Brewers and Astros thought he would help in '99 and '00, respectively. When finally granted free agency for the last time, we were able to lay his .160/.173/.260 career line to rest... Thankfully.

1993:
Sam Militello, SP, NYY - This guy absolutely tore up the minor leagues, going 34-8 with a 1.76 ERA in his first 3 years. In '92 he was 12-2, 2.29 with 152 K's in 141 1/3 innings in the International League. Minor league managers named him the top AAA prospect in the game, and after a 3-3, 3.45 stint with the big league club, it seemed like they were onto something. In his major league debut, he pitched 7 innings and allowed only 1 hit. In fact, he was the premier star on that '92 Columbus Clippers team, overshadowing guys like JT Snow, Dave Silvestri, Hensley Muelens (hey, remember him?), Gerald Williams, Russ Springer, and Shawn Hillegas... Not to mention a trio of guys named Brad Ausmus, Bob Wickman, and Bernie Williams. What happened to him? Well, all I can find is that injuries derailed his career, which is a shame. It really looked bright, although he needed to cut down his walks. Now he's the pitching coach for the University of Tampa, I believe, where he still holds the all-time strikeout record by FAR.

David Nied, SP, ATL - He wasn't quite the bust that some of these others were, but he's a personal favorite of mine. Why? Because his 1992 callup was one of the most brilliant I've ever seen. What a line: 23 innings, 3-0, 1.17 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, 19-5 K:BB, and all in an Atlanta uniform. Then, something puzzling happened: John Schuerholz didn't protect him when the expansion draft rolled around, and he was the #1 pick by the Colorado Rockies. He was actually even more dominant than Militello in the IL, with a K:BB ration of 159:44. So what happened? The easy answer is Denver, but in '93 and '94, Nied wasn't that bad in Denver, getting ERAs of 5.17 & 4.80, the latter actually being better than league-average. I found an interesting analysis of famous pitchers when they were at Richmond:
Player Age IP K/9 BB/9 ERA
Pitcher A 20 82.1 7.54 2.30 3.39
Pitcher B 20 190.1 4.87 3.92 3.83
Pitcher C 21 135.1 7.65 2.46 2.79
Pitcher D 22 60.2 6.82 2.37 1.93
Pitcher E 22 161.2 7.57 3.73 2.34
Pitcher F 23 168 8.52 2.36 2.84
Of the 6, one was David Nied. The other 5 all turned out to be very good major league pitchers. Which looks like a future star? The guy who logged a ton of innings with the highest K:BB rate, pitcher F. So, who was who?
Pitcher A was Steve Avery. Pitcher B was Tommy Glavine. Pitcher C was John Smoltz. Pitcher D was Kevin Millwood. Pitcher E was Jason Schmidt. Pitcher F was the one sure star - David Nied. He never had any serious injuries that I know of, so I can only assume the stress of pitching in Colorado got the best of him... Too bad, really.

1994:
You know, to be quite honest, there were no huge flops in '94. The preseason top rookies all were contributors in their careers, with some big names coming out in that class: Carlos Delgado, Alex Gonzalez, Steve Karsay, Rich Becker, Rick Helling, Chipper Jones, Ryan Klesko, Salomon Torres, Willie Greene, and Phil Nevin. Besides, it's only fitting that my analysis for '94 be shortened...

1995:
Bill Pulsipher, SP, NYM - Very few prospects have ever been as famous or as heralded as the Mets' trio of young studs in the mid 90's which consisted of Jason Isringhausen, Paul Wilson, and Pulsipher, and were collectively known as Generation K. In '95, he didn't disappoint, showing promise in 126 innings with the Mets at age 21. The next spring, however, while preparing for his sophomore season, he blew out his elbow, sidelining him until '97. He then battled depression, retired, came back, and is still trying to make it. It's a really interesting story concerning easily one of the 10 biggest pitching prospects of the last 15 years. For more info on Pulsipher or a really good read, his story (as told by him) can be found here:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/columnists/050407schwarz.html

Brien Taylor, SP, NYY - Easily one of the 5 most famous flameouts of all time, I felt he needed to be included somewhere. Taylor, along with Steve Chilcott, is one of the only 2 #1 overall draft picks to never reach the major leagues. He got into a well-documented trailer park fight in 1993 and tore his labrum. He was never the same.
Taylor the player was always lost in sight of Taylor the draft pick. He really changed the game, and is probably one of the 50 most influential people to ever be involved with the game. Taylor, who held out for a then record $1.55 million, set the standard for top talents who want respect. His high school reputation was impeccable: in 88 innings, he struck out 213 batters. Scott Boras still says Taylor is the best high school pitcher he's ever seen. The lefty could hit 99 routinely on the gun, and he was the definition of unhittable. Until that fight in '93, he was unhittable in the minors as well. Now he's a bricklayer and still drives the suped up Mustang he bought with his signing bonus money; it's such a sad story for such a talented player.

Brad Woodall, SP, ATL - One of the more forgettable Atlanta pitching prospects, but in a year with a lot of risky pitching prospect picks like Taylor, Woodall seemed like the easy choice for stardom. He dominated the IL with Richmond, and scouts left and right were comparing him to Tom Glavine. Woodall shared that ability to spot his fastball and nibble at corners. Unfortunately, he just never got the chance in Atlanta and resurfaced in Milwaukee, where he started 20 games in 1998.

Jose Oliva, 3B, ATL - There was a ton of optimism surrounding Oliva going into 1995, mainly because he homered once every 3 games in his callup the previous fall. In '95, however, he lost his ability to hit home runs so rapidly and he was traded to the Cardinals. After 22 games with STL, he would never play in the majors again. He went home to the Dominican Republic, where he died in 1997 when his car flipped off the road. At the time of his death, he was leading the DR winter tournament in home runs and rbi, and would be posthumously named MVP. His teammate, Julio Franco, would eventually find his way back to the majors.

Midnight Train To Obscurity - Part 1

2006-08-11T23:41:00.000-07:00

"He kept dreaming that someday he'd be a star

(a superstar but he didn't get far)

But he sure found out the hard way

That dreams don't always come true"

I've decided to take a look back at some of the big prospects to come down the line over the past years and why they didn't pan out. We'll start around 1989, since that's the earliest publication I have with rookie reports. Anyone who was selected to an all star team won't be considered, even if many think they didn't meet the expectations (that's you, Gregg Jeffries). We're looking for true washouts.

1989:

Mike Harkey - "Some see Harkey, a 6-5, 220-pound right-hander out of Cal State Fullerton, as another Ferguson Jenkins." Don't you love those early comparisons? Only Cubs fans could conjure that up. Harkey was listed as a top rookie for 1989, but a shoulder injury destroyed his velocity and his shot at a starting job. By 1990, he was healthy, but manager Don Zimmer thought it'd be a fantastic idea to help Harkey's shoulder problem by inserting him into a 4 man rotation. Harkey pitched well, going 12-6, 3.26, & 94-59 K-BB ratio. Unfortunately, it fatigued his arm, which would become a routine process. He only reached 100 innings two other times in his career, never topping his 1990 total of 173.7, and never reaching the total in consecutive seasons. By the mid nineties, the shoulder had robbed him of any hope of fulfilling the expectations.

1990:

Scott Coolbaugh - Coolbaugh was a big college star at Texas, and the Rangers were certain he'd be the next great third baseman. Unfortunately, Coolbaugh never learned to make consistent contact in the minors, and he struggled mightily at the major league level, where in 4 seasons he posted a career line of .215/.281/.310. Street & Smith's 1990 said Coolbaugh was more ready to jump to the majors than Carlos Baerga, Mike Blowers, or Robin Ventura. I think the problem is that a lot of players like Ventura, Jim Abbott, and Gregg Olson, among others, were able to successfully make a quick transition to the majors after playing college ball. I suppose a lot of guys like Coolbaugh were foolishly rushed in the mere hopes they'd have the same fortune.

Eric Anthony - Anthony wasn't quite the bust some of these others was, but in 1990 he was viewed as the next premier home run hitter. He sure loved to swing, and he didn't really give a damn if making contact was in his future or not. While Rob Deer perfected the three true outcomes approach, Anthony used the far less valuable but more alliterative two true outcomes technique: he either struck out or homered. Anthony, in his major league career, would strike out once every 5 plate appearances or so. By 1993, he started to learn to draw walks to some extent, but by the time he truly realized getting on base was a good thing, his power had dried up.

Pat Combs - Boy, scouts were raving over Combs, a tall lefty who "dominated" the minors in '89. One publication compared him to Steve Carlton. Steve Carlton. Maybe they didn't get the memo, but Carlton wasn't simply a tall lefty. He struck guys out. He was unhittable. Combs' strikeouts were quite unimpressive, and unCarltonian: 21 in 41 A innings, 77 in 125 AA innings, 20 in 24 AAA innings, and 30 in 38 MLB innings. 148 K's in 228 innings is NOT Steve Carlton. Well, maybe old Carlton. Still, at age 39, he topped that total by 15 in the same number of innings. Combs also failed to share another trait with Carlton: He had poor control - his K:BB rate was nearly even for his career.

1991:

Hensley Muelens - Nicknamed "Bam-Bam" for his power prowess in the minors. He had 96 rbi in '90 and the Yankees were confident he'd be their next great outfielder. The scouting report said he had all the tools but struck out a little too much. Needless to say, the strikeouts caught up to him at the major league level, and he never played much. In 182 games, he didn't even get enough career at bats to quailfy for a single season batting title. A career .220/.288/.353 line shows his lack of plate discipline, but his career K:BB rate of 165-42 is even more telling. 5 tools are nice, but they can't tell you when to swing.

Phil Plantier - Same song, second verse, except this time the high strikeout guy actually makes enough contact to hit 34 home runs for the Padres in 1993, after the Red Sox had given up on their golden boy. If I remember correctly, he had a very Bagwell-esque batting style, so I have to wonder what kind of acid Boston's rookie level hitting coach was on when he decided to have his hitters sit on imaginary stools. I didn't plan on having someone on this list who had topped 30 HR or 100 rbi in the majors, but Plantier fizzled quickly and even his best season wasn't really that good.

Tomorrow, we should venture further into the 90's with prospects you are more likely to remember.

August 1 blues

2006-08-01T23:44:00.000-07:00

Sigh, it's sinking in. The most active part of the trade season is over, and while yesterday's post was centered on the amazement over Jim Bowden's incredulous decision to hold onto Alfonso Soriano, I can't ignore the 11 deals that actually did go through. Here's my take on winners and losers:
1. Reds get: Rheal Cormier - The Reds are now officially obsessed with the bullpen. Honestly, I thought they'd done enough lately in terms of the pen. In fact, more than enough. The Guardado deal is what they needed, and the Kearns deal, while terrible considering what they gave up, at least netted two decent relievers. Now, they get Cormier, the 39 year old reliever who has been really good this year. Well, his results have all been good. Cormier himself has been mostly lucky. It's hard to credit a pitcher with a 1:1 K to BB ratio with his success. He's never had great stuff, but he has good accuracy, and gets plenty of ground balls. He should be ok for them, but not great.
Phils get: Justin Germano - Germano hasn't been very effective this year, but could one day be a starter for Philadelphia. Right now, though, it doesn't seem highly likely. He doesn't walk too many batters, doesn't strike too many out, and really doesn't do anything spectacularly. He's an extreme groundballer whose luck hasn't been too good this year.
WINNER: Push - The Reds get a lefty who knows how to pitch without giving up anything major. The Phils unload an old player and get something in return.

2. Tigers get Sean Casey - You know, I'm not all that excited about this deal. Sure, Chris Shelton hasn't been very good since April but Shelton's worst is as good as Casey period, I think. Won't this trip to AAA stunt his growth? Sean Casey doesn't do much with the bat, especially at first base, and really won't provide anything of value other than leadership. Then again, Jim Leyland gets greatness out of good players, so maybe he can get goodness out of a pretty mediocre player.
Pirates get Brian Rogers - Rogers wasn't a huge prospect in the Detroit system, but he was certainly pitching well this year. He allowed a .210/.257/.322 split this year, which is very good. Temper the excitement, though, since he's a 24 year old in AA, but the numbers are impressive. He rarely issues walks and strikes out more than 1 per inning. Honestly, he might be able to immediately go into the Pirates' bullpen and succeed. They've got nothing to lose, except more games, but they're fine with that.
WINNER: Pittsburgh. Casey makes entirely too much money and they got rid of a subpar first baseman, get an older prospect with a great performance this year, and now have the option of promoting Brad Eldred if they want, although he might need some more time.

3. Reds get Kyle Lohse - That's right, the Reds got more bullpen help. This is getting ridiculous. Lohse can start if Cincy needs him to, and he could be good in the pen, being a 3 pitch pitcher with plus stuff. He's terribly inconsistent, and it seems like his early power pitching days might be over. Like I said, maybe the bullpen work is what the doctor ordered.
Twins get Zach Ward - Last year's 3rd round pick by Cincy, Ward was blowing through low A ball. As a 22 year old, he's expected to be ahead of the curve, but let's not downplay what he's doing. In 113.7 innings, he has allowed a .187/.275/.258 split and struck out 95. He also carries the title of extreme groundballer. The Twins know how to bring along prospects, and he'll thrive in that system.
WINNER: Minnesota - While Lohse could turn out to be a very good reliever, Ward is a young prospect with a good bit of talent and great results. Ward even played his home games in a hitters park at Dayton.

4. Mets get Oliver Perez - We all know what Perez CAN do, but I'm convinced no one, not even Perez, knows what he WILL do. He's capable of giving you either of these two stat lines:
IP H R BB K
8 3 0 1 11
3 6 7 6 6

Enjoy, Met fans. Enjoy. He's capable of churning out that first stat line on a consistent basis again, and he's been great in the minors. Rick Peterson is good at what he does, but with Oliver he'll have his work cut out for him.
Mets get Roberto Hernandez - I don't really know how much closer to the end of a career someone can be. It seems like it's been 30 years since he was a closer for the White Sox. I can understand the need to get a reliever though, with Duaner Sanchez' injury. Still, the Mets aren't in dire straits by any means. Darren Oliver is one of the best relievers in the majors this year and Wagner is the kind of guy you need in the playoffs, even if he's vastly overpaid. Hernandez will provide decent but not great setup work for them.
Pirates get Xavier Nady - Nady has great power, but he struggles with contact and with right handers, so I'm not sure he's a great longterm option for Pitt. Nady is 27, so there's still a chance he could break out soon. This year is a quasi-breakout, but I think in NY it was a bit overhyped by the media.
WINNER: New York - Whether he realizes it or not, Oliver Perez' potential alone is enough reason to trade Nady, not to mention getting a reliever for the postseason. Great move for the Mets.

5. Rangers get Matt Stairs - Another good hitter's hitter for the stretch run. He gets on base, will hit a few homers, and comes cheap. It's the sort of addition smart teams make for the stretch run. You know this irritates Billy Beane, for someone else in the division to be smart with their decisions.
Royals get Joselo Diaz - Gosh, this guy would be really good if he could harness that fastball. His numbers, despite wildness, are pretty good - 64 innings, 75 K's, .198/.337/.275 splits, but 42 walks. The Royals have done a great job of adding pitching talent to their minor league system, and Diaz is the latest find. He's not ready for prime time, but if he learns control... big things are to come.
WINNER: Push. Smart trade from both sides. Very smart.

6. Padres get Todd Walker - I can remember when I thought Walker would be a great player. I thought he'd be a 200 hit guy for the Twins. It didn't pan out, but he's not terrible. He still makes solid contact and he has decent discipline, but if he is San Diego's answer at 3B, they're not going to be satisfied. At 2nd, though terrible defensively, he's pretty solid offensively. At 3rd, though, he's probably below average. The Padres may see it a little different though, in that he has value simply by not being named Vinny Castilla. That in itself might recharge this lineup.
Cubs get Jose Ceda - Too early to tell on him, but so far so good. At 19, he's doing what he should in the Arizona League; in 23 innings, he's given up only 1 homer, struck out 31, and walked 13. The scouting report on him says he needs to learn some offspeed pitches, so he's clearly several years away, but those strikout numbers mean he's got some great natural talent that could develop well.
WINNER - Push. Slight edge to the Padres for getting a guy who will help any offense he's in, but Ceda has one heck of an arm.

7. Yankees get Craig Wilson - I guess the Yankees should look toward the state of Pennsylvania any time they need some help, because the price will never be steep. They got Abreu for nothing, and now Wilson? Brian Cashman must be a hypnotist. Wilson will help the Yankees immensely, especially in the role he'll play down the stretch as a part time guy.
Pirates get Shawn Chacon - Seriously, I can't do anything but laugh at this transaction, so let me, in less than 10 words, say all there is to say about Chacon:
Last... year... lucky... this... year... reality... future... in... Pitt... worse
WINNER - The Yankees, no contest. No surprise, with the regime in Pittsburgh.

8. Rangers get Kip Wells - I really couldn't tell you what anyone would want in Wells right now. Honestly, I'm baffled. He's got talent, but he's been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year. The AL West's walk rate just went up.
Pirates get Jesse Chavez - Chavez, a minor league power reliever, with 73 K's in 61 innings, has some control issues, and may not be able to dominate like this at an upper level, but there's upside.
WINNER - Pittsburgh - any time you can convince an organization to take Kip Wells and his money off your hands and give you a prospect with any sort of upside, you've won.

9. Dodgers get Greg Maddux - This ain't the Maddux of '95. Heck, it ain't even the Maddux of '04. He'll do better in Chavez Ravine than Wrigley, in fact a lot better, but he's not the difference maker he once was. An old Greg Maddux is still a better option than a lot of guys in their prime.
Cubs get Cesar Izturis - I really like Izturis' defense, and now the Cubs can return him to his natural position at SS, replacing the atrocious Ronny Cedeno. Regular playing time is all that keeps him from being the next Omar Vizquel.
WINNER - I feel surprised saying this, but the Cubs. While Maddux will pitch well in LA, Izturis is a big, big step up for the Cubs at SS. His defense should shave some runs off the scoreboard and while he's not a great hitter, he'll be more helpful than Cedeno.

10. Dodgers get Julio Lugo - Lugo brings his doubles/steals game to the Ravine, where it'll definitely help. He's got a great glove, but a weak arm, and that should mean a nice transition to 2B. He might just be the sparkplug the last place Dodgers needed - they already have moved into 4th in the West - and if nothing else he'll give them a 1st round draft pick if he leaves via free agency.
D-Rays get Joel Guzman - It's surprising that the biggest prospect to change hands in the entire trade deadline week was in return for Julio Lugo. Guzman could be very, very good one day. At Las Vegas this year, he's .297/.353/.461 with 11 HR. The power is returning after disappearing last year, and some scouting reports compare him to Miguel Cabrera. Now, to think he'll be up there with Delmon and Upton in a year or two? Scary.
D-Rays get Sergio Pedroza - First off, let me say Guzman should've been enough for Julio Lugo. That the Dodgers threw in Pedroza, he of a .969 OPS this year in rookie ball, is downright silly. He's a long way off, but he's on the right track.
WINNER - Tampa Bay - The though of adding Joel Guzman, even if he has no position yet, freeing salary, and opening up a spot for BJ Upton, all in one move? I like it.

11. Royals get Ryan Shealy & Scott Dohmann - Shealy finally gets a chance. Since Ryan Howard got playing time last year, Shealy has occupied my top spot on the Best Blocked Players list. This guy could be very good in Kansas City at 1B, and he'll definitely hold the spot well until Huber arrives for good. Shealy has a lot of power potential and reminds some scouts of a young Derrek Lee. As for Dohmann, a flyball pitcher like him will be happy to get away from Coors. He could easily become a key Royals reliever this season.
Rockies get Jeremy Affeldt and Denny Bautista - Affeldt is the big name of the trade, and he has amazing potential. Unfortunately, he can't stay healthy or consistent, and Colorado won't help the latter. He's still learning to force those groundballs, but the improvement he's made is encouraging. He should be a fine fit in Colorado if they can get consistency from him like they have from Jeff Francis. Those two could be a very underrated pair for '07. Bautista is the groundball strikeout pitcher the Rockies have needed. Put a good defense behind him, give him some run support and some confidence and he'll be fantastic. His arm is unbelievable.
WINNER - Push - A really good trade for both sides. KC may have given up a future ace in Bautista, but they got a great power hitter with Shealy.

Overall winners - Kansas City - You know, I can't describe a single transaction they made this month as a poor decision, and they've made few. The two today were both helpful, and the Royals are setting themselves up nicely for the future.
- New York Yankees - I'm not used to NY making such smart deals. It's refreshing, and they're validating my theory that they are the true team to beat in the AL.

Overall losers - Pittsburgh - They may have come away winners in two trades, but they were such big losers in the other two that this is pretty obvious. They get rid of Oliver Perez and Craig Wilson and get ZERO prospects in return. ZERO. Pathetic, Littlefield, pathetic. What a waste of a big league ballclub. Only the Orioles are spinning their wheels quite like the Pirates. I have such a disdain for the Pirates' management, you'd think I was a Pirates fan. I'm not, but I feel bad for all the fans that do have to put up with meaningless seasons where Littlefield talks up the Randas, Caseys, Redmans, and Wells. Next up are the Nadys and Chacons, I suppose.

National Crisis

2006-07-31T22:42:00.000-07:00

Looking back on today's trade deadline, there were a good number of deals, but nothing major like anticipated. The big names that had been thrown around, like Roy Oswalt, Andruw Jones, Jason Schmidt, Miguel Tejada, Brad Lidge, Mark Buehrle, Coco Crisp, Shawn Green, Barry Zito, Mike Lowell, Mark Loretta, Hank Blalock. None received that dreaded call around 4 PM today. There were a few surprises - like the Royals/Rockies trade, Kip Wells going to Texas, and the Lugo deal. However, the biggest surprise of all, in what seemed like a shocking move, was not a move at all. It was the Nationals' decision to not trade Alfonso Soriano.

Ok, he's been really good this year, one of the ten best players in the NL. His splits - .286/.363/.587 - are pretty strong coming from someone playing home games in RFK (inconceivably, Soriano plays better in RFK than away), and he plays well against both lefties and righties. Not surprisingly, there was a ton of interest in him by teams that were in the playoff hunt, unlike Washington. There was reported interest from Anaheim, Los Angeles, Minnesota, Seattle, Houston, Florida, Oakland, Detroit, Chicago, and Boston. Needless to say, his market price was the highest it's ever been, and likely ever will be. For Washington not to trade him, they must think they're going to compete next year. Let's try to figure out just how the plan to do that.

C: Brian Schneider - .226/.297/.295 - What happened to this guy? Nobody expected him to be an All-Star but no one expected him to be a black hole of Brad Ausmus proportions. He's no one to count on, that's for sure. There's little chance of trading him - the Nats owe him $12.3 million over the next three years.

1B: Nick Johnson - .302/.435/.534 - Johnson should've gotten an invite to Pittsburgh for the All-Star game, and I thought he was snubbed in favor of homer happy Ryan Howard. Johnson has developed into a less powerful version of Jason Giambi, or else he looks like Giambi in his early years. He's definitely an offensive piece to build around, and they wisely signed him to a 3 year extension which runs through 2009 just before this season. He really won't cost them much, either, at only $16.5 million over 3 years. One of the few smart things Jim Bowden has done.

2B: Jose Vidro - .300/.363/.405 - Vidro appears to be something of a lost cause. He's very good when healthy, but in the rare event he's not on the disabled list, he's still playing with some sort of side effect from an injury. His slugging numbers have died through the years, but the potential is still there. I just wouldn't expect to see it on display much outside a batting cage. Sadly, they still owe Vidro $15.5 million after this season.

SS: Felipe Lopez - .266/.355/.388 - Ok, he's nothing to write home about this year, but I still don't think 2005 was a complete fluke. Lopez has some power and some good skills, and he's just entering his prime. If this year tells us anything, it's to temper our expectations of consistency for him. I'm not sure which year of arbitration he'll be in this offseason, but I think it's the 2nd.

3B: Ryan Zimmerman - .287/.351/.470 - I'll admit, I picked Zim to win the Rookie of the Year this year in the NL, and he's definitely in the race. It's remarkable how consistently he plays against lefties and righties. His defense is the best in the National League, and that's saying a lot when you consider Rolen and Wright.

LF: Alfonso Soriano - He's valuable this year, and his defense isn't as atrocious or team-killing as it would've been at 2B, but will it last? Is 3/5 of a season the outlier here or was the rest of his career, where he never hit well away from Texas? My bet is that he tails off a bit from here on out. He'll cost a pretty penny, though, to keep.

CF: Ryan Church - .250/.368/.511 - Ok, I just can't seriously think the Nats are gonna play Luis Matos in centerfield next year over Church, one of their best players. Granted, keeping Church in the minors early this season is up there with one of Bowden's dumbest moves, but at some point they have to realize what this guy offers, right? Right?

RF: Austin Kearns - .272/.358/.480 - Jose Guillen probably is through with the Nats, seeing as how his contract runs out this year and Kearns is still in arbitration years. His power is still blossoming, and if he can consistently make contact, he'll turn into a great hitter.

SP: Livan Hernandez - They couldn't find any takers for the most worn-out pitcher in baseball, and with $7 million on the hook for next season, I'm not surprised. If the Nats want at all to compete, Livan will have to bounce back.

SP: John Patterson - 2006 has been a lost season for Patterson. Really, all he can smile about is that he pitched pretty well when he was healthy enough to take the mound, totaling 42 K's and 9 BBs in 40.2 innings this year. He'll have to return from surgery well to make the Nats a contender.

SP: Ramon Ortiz - Really? Ramon Ortiz? There's a mutual option on him for next year for $4.55 million, and I figure if they'll let this guy near a mound these days, they'll let him do it again next year.

SP: Tony Armas - Ok, Tony, you've reached the Jeff Weaver point, where potential starts to mean much less and what you do on the field suddenly becomes glaringly clear. Sure, he could break out, but it's much more likely he'll either break down or help some opposing hitters break out instead. He's never been more than league-average, despite all the potential he's had.

SP: Brian Lawrence - The Nats can re-up him for $5.7 million, and he's certainly not worth it. What that means is that they'll probably pick up the option.

Closer:
Chad Cordero - He's not quite at that level where he's lights out all the time, but he could definitely reach the point one day. Actually, he SHOULD reach that point.

Mo Money Mo Problems
Ok, so let's see what Bowden's on the books for next year already:
Jose Vidro - $7.5 mil
Cristian Guzman - $4.2
Nick Johnson - $5.5
Brian Schneider - $3.5
Marlon Anderson - $.925
Livan Hernandez - $7.0
Luis Ayala - $1.3
Total - $29.925 million.

Ok, now let's assume in arbitration Kearns gets a raise to roughly, oh, $4.50 million.
That'll put this payroll at around $35 million.

Next, let's assume Bowden does one of his stupid, stupid, offseason signings, and gives $4 million to someone like Vinny Castilla or Cristian Guzman or Brian Schneider, who won't help at all: $39 mil

Let's say they resign Soriano to play the outfield. At cheapest, it'll cost them $12 million per. Most likely, it'll be around 14 per and start around 11. That'll push the payroll to $50 million or so.

Resigning Soriano and allotting for a patented dumb Bowden move means that 10 players will make $50 million dollars, or 79% of the opening day 2006 payroll. Let's say ownership decides to increase payroll by $10 million in the first year. That still leaves $23 million for 15 more players, including 4 starting pitchers and more guys going through arbitration.

Basically, unless one of several things happens, I can't see the Nats being a contender next year, for these reasons:
- As good as the offense can be, it's somewhat injury prone and not good enough to carry a team
- The rotation is about as weak as you'll find in the national league. The only truly dependable guy is an injury risk (J-Patt).

What needs to happen?
- Ownership will need to spend more than $73 million, in my opinion. There are too many holes, and if they go get Barry Zito or another difference making pitcher, it'll go a long way.
- These annual duds like Ortiz, Lawrence, and Armas need to all realize their potential in some near-magical way. It won't happen, but I thought I'd list it anyway.

The point of all this is that Washington made what will probably turn out to be a foolish move today. They could've acquired a multitude of pitching prospects - Florida offered Yusmeiro Petit among others, Anaheim offered Earvin Santana, and the Twins are loaded with talent enough to make the deal. I don't even think '07 played into the decision until Bowden realized he wouldn't get his exorbitant asking price. Now, they might not even re-sign Soriano, and all they'll get out of him is a 1st round draft pick. Not exactly Earvin Santana there, is it? If they do resign him, in all likelihood there won't be playoffs in the Nats' near future, unless ownership allows Bowden to go after some pitching, for better or for worse. The scouting department there has made improvements, but it doesn't look like there's imminent help on the way in terms of pitching (or, really, anything).

How could they have acquired the pitching depth they needed to set themselves up for the longterm? By trading Soriano and using the spare cash from that deal to sign a couple of decent starters to some short contracts. Re-sign Jose Guillen to an incentive laden deal, and have a Kearns/Church/Guillen outfield for much cheaper. The bottom line is that the difference between Alfonso Soriano and who they could replace him with is not as big as the difference between guys like Armas and Ortiz and who they could've replaced them with.

It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out, but if Soriano isn't resigned by October, Bowden should get fired for letting this HUGE opportunity slip away. Not that he'll care - he just wants a higher profile job anyway.

Under Pressure

2006-07-30T14:17:00.000-07:00

"Pressure pressing down on me/ Pressing down on you..." - "Under Pressure" by Queen/David Bowie

Pressure. That's what I chalk today's biggest trade up to. The Phillies have traded Bobby Abreu, their best hitter, to the New York Yankees. Why? I really don't know. There are various reasons, none of which make a whole lot of sense.
1. Money - Abreu is owed $13 million in '06 (the Yankees are picking up $7 million this year, I think), and $15 million in '07. Yeah, it's a lot, but it's certainly manageable. Especially when the team has an $88 million dollar payroll. Furthermore, Abreu loves playing in Philadelphia, and he was committed to turning Philly into a champion. If the Phillies were looking to dump salary, why not simply dump the guys who had no chance of factoring into the future? They still owe Pat Burrell $27 million through 2008. Jon Lieber is owed $7.5 million next year. To Philly's credit, they're trying to deal Lieber right now and he could be gone (to Texas?) by the time this post is completed. Closer Tom Gordon, 38, is owed $12.2 million through '08. Outfielder Aaron Rowand is due either $3.25 or $5 million next year. The point is, rather than morgaging their best player to save $22 million dollars, they could have dealt these other, less vital players, and saved over $50 million dollars.

2. Home Runs - Much has been made about Abreu's power shortage since the 2005 Home Run Derby, but it's not like he's been completely unproductive. He's still stealing bases with efficiency, 20 for 24 this year. Despite the power loss, he's still getting on base at a Bondsian rate, at .427 this year. When you're on base every other time you come to the plate, you're not going to negatively affect your offense. Also, who is to say the power won't return? Jim Thome's disappeared and returned. The same goes for Jason Giambi. The power, however, isn't the point. Abreu, even in his days of 30+ HRs, never seemed like a home run hitter. The homers were an afterthought when compared to his practice of working counts and getting on base.

3. Pressure - Ah, the power of media. Abreu, as Philly's 3rd best hitter this season, was a pretty vital part of their offense. His salary wasn't a huge issue, especially when Pat Burrell is due for more money than Abreu. The Phils have looked to deal Bobby before, but only when the market seemed right for it, when it seemed as if they could really rake in some talent to improve the club. Every player has their price, but this wasn't the right time to trade Abreu. With Soriano, Lee, and Tejada on the market, Abreu was no longer the premier player available. If the Phillies didn't see him in their future, I think the offseason would've been a much smarter point in which to trade him.

Having discussed the unwise decision to trade him, along with serviceable though not great starter Cory Lidle, let's take a look at what they received for their star.
- CJ Henry: The centerpiece of the NY side of the deal, Henry was New York's top draft pick in 2005, which really only implies that he has some raw talent. So far this season, as a 20 year old in the A-Ball South Atlantic League, Henry has been largely unimpressive. He has a .232/.321/.341 split, and that mirrors his performance in nearly every situation that's calculated. There are no signs of budding power, and there's really only one bit of hope: The Yankees were never good with developing prospects, so maybe the Phillies can turn Henry into whatever he was supposed to be.

- Matt Smith: The 27 year old lefty can't excite Phillies fans. Sure, he's only given up 4 hits in 12 scoreless innings this year, but when you've issued 8 walks in that span, I wouldn't bother swinging either. A 9:8 K:BB ratio doesn't inspire me to believe greatness is to come from Smith. He was slightly better at Columbus, but he was prone to giving up homers and issuing walks (although not that many).

- Jesus Sanchez: To be honest, I don't know much about Sanchez, but I hope he's one heck of a defensive catcher. It's not often you see an On-Base Percentage (.357) larger than a Slugging Percentage (.333). That's a somewhat bittersweet honor - Sanchez gets on base really well but does so little with the bat when he swings that you wonder if it's worth it. Hence, my defensive wish.

- Carlos Monasterios: At least the Phillies got someone with something to show for themselves besides a scouting report. This guy has been absolutely dominant in the Gulf Coast League this year, with a 8:1 K:BB ratio, and allowing a .541 OPS. It's obviously too soon to get excited over these numbers, considering it's rookie ball, but his kind of dominance shouldn't be ignored on any level. He's several years away, but he could be promising.

Verdict: The Phillies gave up too much and got too little in return. At least, they traded the wrong overpaid outfielder. The Yankees are probably now my pick to win the AL East.

For Starters...

2006-07-30T00:31:00.000-07:00

(What an appropriate title for my first post)

Let's say you're going to throw a party. To make this particular party a great one, you need:
100 8 oz. soft drinks
20 bags of chips
100 hot dogs

You have:
100 8 oz. soft drinks
18 bags of chips
40 hot dogs

You're pretty limited when it comes to funds, but you go shopping nonetheless. If forced to choose between buying hot dogs or chips, you buy the hot dogs, because you need them more. Right?

Not if you're John Schuerholz. Schuerholz opts for the two bags of chips, plus a few more soft drinks for kicks. What's the point of this little example?

The Atlanta Braves, as of yesterday morning, were 12.0 games out of first place in the NL East, and 5.5 games out of the Wild Card. There are several popular reasons for this deficit, but the most popular in the Atlanta media has been the bullpen. Granted, the bullpen has been pretty terrible by comparison to some of Atlanta's past bullpens, but is it really the problem?
ATL ERA Innings 1-6: 4.72
ATL ERA Innings 7 +: 4.62

ATL SP's ERA: 4.77
ATL RP's ERA: 4.69

Not only has the Braves' bullpen been better than the rotation, but the poor bullpen ERA is partly a result of an even poorer rotation, which wears out the bullpen by rarely pitching deep into games. According to Baseball Prospectus' VORP ratings at http://http://www.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?stats&team=ATL , two of Atlanta's three best pitchers have been relievers. So, with the trading deadline upon us, our fearless General Manager has elected to acquire, like never before.... relievers.

Trade 1: Braves get Bob Wickman, Indians get Max Ramirez. Ok, I can't blame JS for making this deal, since Ramirez was not very high in the system depth chart and Wickman provides a veteran closer at minimal cost. The Braves needed a closer more for psychological reasons than on-field reasons. It seems that the bullpen performed better when there wasn't perceived closer pressure. Now, they can rest assured they'll be pitching "meaningless" 7th and 8th innings instead of the 9th, which isn't really any different from the 7th or 8th except chronologically, but whatever. Good trade for Atlanta.

Trade 2: Days after acquiring Wickman, the Braves ship hot commodity Wilson Betemit to Los Angeles for Danys Baez and Willy Aybar. Herein lies the reason for that party example. Don't get me wrong - it's a great trade if you only consider the players involved without the context of team need or team necessity. First of all, Betemit was considered ultra valuable in Atlanta as much out of respect for Chipper Jones' growing frailty as his play on the field. Second, Betemit's greatness is as built upon streakiness as anyone I've ever seen. Last June, he put up strong enough stats to make his season look better than it was. He was on his way to doing the same thing this July. Those are the only two months of his short major league career in which he has managed to get 50 ABs with an OPS over .800. Those standards, by the way, are pretty meager.
As for Baez, he's well-known for his two year stint in Tampa Bay redefining the closer as a guy with pretty average skills pitching his way out of jams and racking up saves while not doing anything spectacular. Still, he immediately becomes one of the 3 best options in the Braves' pen, along with Wickman and Kenny Ray. In fact, if you toss out a meltdown against Philadelphia on June 2 and all his games against the AL, Baez' ERA is 2.79. Other than that particular meltdown, he hasn't been scored on by any team in the NL East this season. He certainly knows how to pitch, because he always seems to outperform his skill set. That's the type the Braves love, so he will fit in.
Willy Aybar, interestingly, is a strikingly similar player to Betemit. Both were signed to major deals as teens out of the Dominican Republic. Both were considered top prospects but eventually slid on their systems' priority charts as younger prospects surpassed them. Both have versatility in the infield. Both have no more than two outlier hot streaks to give them credentials. Luckily for the Braves, Betemit's outlier came just before the trading deadline, while Aybar's came last September and this May. Aybar plays superior defense, in my opinion, and is a year younger.
Like I said, when considering the personnel involved, this is a fantastic trade for Atlanta. Unfortunately, the trade has the context of a playoff chase. The trade doesn't address the starting rotation, which has kept the Braves safely out of the game in two straight games against the Mets.

Schuerholz needed starters to win the wild card. Instead, he found a great deal on relatively unnecessary parts and took it. Now, we Braves fans have a plethora of drinks and chips for our stretch run party, but not enough hot dogs. And isn't that what a rotation is when compared to the bullpen? We need meat to add to the staff, and we're adding side items.

In a related story, I'm taking donations to buy some cushions for Wickman and Baez to have in the bullpen. As much sitting as they're going to have to do out there with stalwarts like Jason Shiell and Horacio Ramirez pitching every day, I would like to keep them comfortable for the rare occasions in which we have a late lead.