Under Pressure
"Pressure pressing down on me/ Pressing down on you..." - "Under Pressure" by Queen/David Bowie
Pressure. That's what I chalk today's biggest trade up to. The Phillies have traded Bobby Abreu, their best hitter, to the New York Yankees. Why? I really don't know. There are various reasons, none of which make a whole lot of sense.
1. Money - Abreu is owed $13 million in '06 (the Yankees are picking up $7 million this year, I think), and $15 million in '07. Yeah, it's a lot, but it's certainly manageable. Especially when the team has an $88 million dollar payroll. Furthermore, Abreu loves playing in Philadelphia, and he was committed to turning Philly into a champion. If the Phillies were looking to dump salary, why not simply dump the guys who had no chance of factoring into the future? They still owe Pat Burrell $27 million through 2008. Jon Lieber is owed $7.5 million next year. To Philly's credit, they're trying to deal Lieber right now and he could be gone (to Texas?) by the time this post is completed. Closer Tom Gordon, 38, is owed $12.2 million through '08. Outfielder Aaron Rowand is due either $3.25 or $5 million next year. The point is, rather than morgaging their best player to save $22 million dollars, they could have dealt these other, less vital players, and saved over $50 million dollars.
2. Home Runs - Much has been made about Abreu's power shortage since the 2005 Home Run Derby, but it's not like he's been completely unproductive. He's still stealing bases with efficiency, 20 for 24 this year. Despite the power loss, he's still getting on base at a Bondsian rate, at .427 this year. When you're on base every other time you come to the plate, you're not going to negatively affect your offense. Also, who is to say the power won't return? Jim Thome's disappeared and returned. The same goes for Jason Giambi. The power, however, isn't the point. Abreu, even in his days of 30+ HRs, never seemed like a home run hitter. The homers were an afterthought when compared to his practice of working counts and getting on base.
3. Pressure - Ah, the power of media. Abreu, as Philly's 3rd best hitter this season, was a pretty vital part of their offense. His salary wasn't a huge issue, especially when Pat Burrell is due for more money than Abreu. The Phils have looked to deal Bobby before, but only when the market seemed right for it, when it seemed as if they could really rake in some talent to improve the club. Every player has their price, but this wasn't the right time to trade Abreu. With Soriano, Lee, and Tejada on the market, Abreu was no longer the premier player available. If the Phillies didn't see him in their future, I think the offseason would've been a much smarter point in which to trade him.
Having discussed the unwise decision to trade him, along with serviceable though not great starter Cory Lidle, let's take a look at what they received for their star.
- CJ Henry: The centerpiece of the NY side of the deal, Henry was New York's top draft pick in 2005, which really only implies that he has some raw talent. So far this season, as a 20 year old in the A-Ball South Atlantic League, Henry has been largely unimpressive. He has a .232/.321/.341 split, and that mirrors his performance in nearly every situation that's calculated. There are no signs of budding power, and there's really only one bit of hope: The Yankees were never good with developing prospects, so maybe the Phillies can turn Henry into whatever he was supposed to be.
- Matt Smith: The 27 year old lefty can't excite Phillies fans. Sure, he's only given up 4 hits in 12 scoreless innings this year, but when you've issued 8 walks in that span, I wouldn't bother swinging either. A 9:8 K:BB ratio doesn't inspire me to believe greatness is to come from Smith. He was slightly better at Columbus, but he was prone to giving up homers and issuing walks (although not that many).
- Jesus Sanchez: To be honest, I don't know much about Sanchez, but I hope he's one heck of a defensive catcher. It's not often you see an On-Base Percentage (.357) larger than a Slugging Percentage (.333). That's a somewhat bittersweet honor - Sanchez gets on base really well but does so little with the bat when he swings that you wonder if it's worth it. Hence, my defensive wish.
- Carlos Monasterios: At least the Phillies got someone with something to show for themselves besides a scouting report. This guy has been absolutely dominant in the Gulf Coast League this year, with a 8:1 K:BB ratio, and allowing a .541 OPS. It's obviously too soon to get excited over these numbers, considering it's rookie ball, but his kind of dominance shouldn't be ignored on any level. He's several years away, but he could be promising.
Verdict: The Phillies gave up too much and got too little in return. At least, they traded the wrong overpaid outfielder. The Yankees are probably now my pick to win the AL East.
Pressure. That's what I chalk today's biggest trade up to. The Phillies have traded Bobby Abreu, their best hitter, to the New York Yankees. Why? I really don't know. There are various reasons, none of which make a whole lot of sense.
1. Money - Abreu is owed $13 million in '06 (the Yankees are picking up $7 million this year, I think), and $15 million in '07. Yeah, it's a lot, but it's certainly manageable. Especially when the team has an $88 million dollar payroll. Furthermore, Abreu loves playing in Philadelphia, and he was committed to turning Philly into a champion. If the Phillies were looking to dump salary, why not simply dump the guys who had no chance of factoring into the future? They still owe Pat Burrell $27 million through 2008. Jon Lieber is owed $7.5 million next year. To Philly's credit, they're trying to deal Lieber right now and he could be gone (to Texas?) by the time this post is completed. Closer Tom Gordon, 38, is owed $12.2 million through '08. Outfielder Aaron Rowand is due either $3.25 or $5 million next year. The point is, rather than morgaging their best player to save $22 million dollars, they could have dealt these other, less vital players, and saved over $50 million dollars.
2. Home Runs - Much has been made about Abreu's power shortage since the 2005 Home Run Derby, but it's not like he's been completely unproductive. He's still stealing bases with efficiency, 20 for 24 this year. Despite the power loss, he's still getting on base at a Bondsian rate, at .427 this year. When you're on base every other time you come to the plate, you're not going to negatively affect your offense. Also, who is to say the power won't return? Jim Thome's disappeared and returned. The same goes for Jason Giambi. The power, however, isn't the point. Abreu, even in his days of 30+ HRs, never seemed like a home run hitter. The homers were an afterthought when compared to his practice of working counts and getting on base.
3. Pressure - Ah, the power of media. Abreu, as Philly's 3rd best hitter this season, was a pretty vital part of their offense. His salary wasn't a huge issue, especially when Pat Burrell is due for more money than Abreu. The Phils have looked to deal Bobby before, but only when the market seemed right for it, when it seemed as if they could really rake in some talent to improve the club. Every player has their price, but this wasn't the right time to trade Abreu. With Soriano, Lee, and Tejada on the market, Abreu was no longer the premier player available. If the Phillies didn't see him in their future, I think the offseason would've been a much smarter point in which to trade him.
Having discussed the unwise decision to trade him, along with serviceable though not great starter Cory Lidle, let's take a look at what they received for their star.
- CJ Henry: The centerpiece of the NY side of the deal, Henry was New York's top draft pick in 2005, which really only implies that he has some raw talent. So far this season, as a 20 year old in the A-Ball South Atlantic League, Henry has been largely unimpressive. He has a .232/.321/.341 split, and that mirrors his performance in nearly every situation that's calculated. There are no signs of budding power, and there's really only one bit of hope: The Yankees were never good with developing prospects, so maybe the Phillies can turn Henry into whatever he was supposed to be.
- Matt Smith: The 27 year old lefty can't excite Phillies fans. Sure, he's only given up 4 hits in 12 scoreless innings this year, but when you've issued 8 walks in that span, I wouldn't bother swinging either. A 9:8 K:BB ratio doesn't inspire me to believe greatness is to come from Smith. He was slightly better at Columbus, but he was prone to giving up homers and issuing walks (although not that many).
- Jesus Sanchez: To be honest, I don't know much about Sanchez, but I hope he's one heck of a defensive catcher. It's not often you see an On-Base Percentage (.357) larger than a Slugging Percentage (.333). That's a somewhat bittersweet honor - Sanchez gets on base really well but does so little with the bat when he swings that you wonder if it's worth it. Hence, my defensive wish.
- Carlos Monasterios: At least the Phillies got someone with something to show for themselves besides a scouting report. This guy has been absolutely dominant in the Gulf Coast League this year, with a 8:1 K:BB ratio, and allowing a .541 OPS. It's obviously too soon to get excited over these numbers, considering it's rookie ball, but his kind of dominance shouldn't be ignored on any level. He's several years away, but he could be promising.
Verdict: The Phillies gave up too much and got too little in return. At least, they traded the wrong overpaid outfielder. The Yankees are probably now my pick to win the AL East.
posted by Brent Blackwell at 2:17 PM
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