National Crisis
Looking back on today's trade deadline, there were a good number of deals, but nothing major like anticipated. The big names that had been thrown around, like Roy Oswalt, Andruw Jones, Jason Schmidt, Miguel Tejada, Brad Lidge, Mark Buehrle, Coco Crisp, Shawn Green, Barry Zito, Mike Lowell, Mark Loretta, Hank Blalock. None received that dreaded call around 4 PM today. There were a few surprises - like the Royals/Rockies trade, Kip Wells going to Texas, and the Lugo deal. However, the biggest surprise of all, in what seemed like a shocking move, was not a move at all. It was the Nationals' decision to not trade Alfonso Soriano.
Ok, he's been really good this year, one of the ten best players in the NL. His splits - .286/.363/.587 - are pretty strong coming from someone playing home games in RFK (inconceivably, Soriano plays better in RFK than away), and he plays well against both lefties and righties. Not surprisingly, there was a ton of interest in him by teams that were in the playoff hunt, unlike Washington. There was reported interest from Anaheim, Los Angeles, Minnesota, Seattle, Houston, Florida, Oakland, Detroit, Chicago, and Boston. Needless to say, his market price was the highest it's ever been, and likely ever will be. For Washington not to trade him, they must think they're going to compete next year. Let's try to figure out just how the plan to do that.
C: Brian Schneider - .226/.297/.295 - What happened to this guy? Nobody expected him to be an All-Star but no one expected him to be a black hole of Brad Ausmus proportions. He's no one to count on, that's for sure. There's little chance of trading him - the Nats owe him $12.3 million over the next three years.
1B: Nick Johnson - .302/.435/.534 - Johnson should've gotten an invite to Pittsburgh for the All-Star game, and I thought he was snubbed in favor of homer happy Ryan Howard. Johnson has developed into a less powerful version of Jason Giambi, or else he looks like Giambi in his early years. He's definitely an offensive piece to build around, and they wisely signed him to a 3 year extension which runs through 2009 just before this season. He really won't cost them much, either, at only $16.5 million over 3 years. One of the few smart things Jim Bowden has done.
2B: Jose Vidro - .300/.363/.405 - Vidro appears to be something of a lost cause. He's very good when healthy, but in the rare event he's not on the disabled list, he's still playing with some sort of side effect from an injury. His slugging numbers have died through the years, but the potential is still there. I just wouldn't expect to see it on display much outside a batting cage. Sadly, they still owe Vidro $15.5 million after this season.
SS: Felipe Lopez - .266/.355/.388 - Ok, he's nothing to write home about this year, but I still don't think 2005 was a complete fluke. Lopez has some power and some good skills, and he's just entering his prime. If this year tells us anything, it's to temper our expectations of consistency for him. I'm not sure which year of arbitration he'll be in this offseason, but I think it's the 2nd.
3B: Ryan Zimmerman - .287/.351/.470 - I'll admit, I picked Zim to win the Rookie of the Year this year in the NL, and he's definitely in the race. It's remarkable how consistently he plays against lefties and righties. His defense is the best in the National League, and that's saying a lot when you consider Rolen and Wright.
LF: Alfonso Soriano - He's valuable this year, and his defense isn't as atrocious or team-killing as it would've been at 2B, but will it last? Is 3/5 of a season the outlier here or was the rest of his career, where he never hit well away from Texas? My bet is that he tails off a bit from here on out. He'll cost a pretty penny, though, to keep.
CF: Ryan Church - .250/.368/.511 - Ok, I just can't seriously think the Nats are gonna play Luis Matos in centerfield next year over Church, one of their best players. Granted, keeping Church in the minors early this season is up there with one of Bowden's dumbest moves, but at some point they have to realize what this guy offers, right? Right?
RF: Austin Kearns - .272/.358/.480 - Jose Guillen probably is through with the Nats, seeing as how his contract runs out this year and Kearns is still in arbitration years. His power is still blossoming, and if he can consistently make contact, he'll turn into a great hitter.
SP: Livan Hernandez - They couldn't find any takers for the most worn-out pitcher in baseball, and with $7 million on the hook for next season, I'm not surprised. If the Nats want at all to compete, Livan will have to bounce back.
SP: John Patterson - 2006 has been a lost season for Patterson. Really, all he can smile about is that he pitched pretty well when he was healthy enough to take the mound, totaling 42 K's and 9 BBs in 40.2 innings this year. He'll have to return from surgery well to make the Nats a contender.
SP: Ramon Ortiz - Really? Ramon Ortiz? There's a mutual option on him for next year for $4.55 million, and I figure if they'll let this guy near a mound these days, they'll let him do it again next year.
SP: Tony Armas - Ok, Tony, you've reached the Jeff Weaver point, where potential starts to mean much less and what you do on the field suddenly becomes glaringly clear. Sure, he could break out, but it's much more likely he'll either break down or help some opposing hitters break out instead. He's never been more than league-average, despite all the potential he's had.
SP: Brian Lawrence - The Nats can re-up him for $5.7 million, and he's certainly not worth it. What that means is that they'll probably pick up the option.
Closer:
Chad Cordero - He's not quite at that level where he's lights out all the time, but he could definitely reach the point one day. Actually, he SHOULD reach that point.
Mo Money Mo Problems
Ok, so let's see what Bowden's on the books for next year already:
Jose Vidro - $7.5 mil
Cristian Guzman - $4.2
Nick Johnson - $5.5
Brian Schneider - $3.5
Marlon Anderson - $.925
Livan Hernandez - $7.0
Luis Ayala - $1.3
Total - $29.925 million.
Ok, now let's assume in arbitration Kearns gets a raise to roughly, oh, $4.50 million.
That'll put this payroll at around $35 million.
Next, let's assume Bowden does one of his stupid, stupid, offseason signings, and gives $4 million to someone like Vinny Castilla or Cristian Guzman or Brian Schneider, who won't help at all: $39 mil
Let's say they resign Soriano to play the outfield. At cheapest, it'll cost them $12 million per. Most likely, it'll be around 14 per and start around 11. That'll push the payroll to $50 million or so.
Resigning Soriano and allotting for a patented dumb Bowden move means that 10 players will make $50 million dollars, or 79% of the opening day 2006 payroll. Let's say ownership decides to increase payroll by $10 million in the first year. That still leaves $23 million for 15 more players, including 4 starting pitchers and more guys going through arbitration.
Basically, unless one of several things happens, I can't see the Nats being a contender next year, for these reasons:
- As good as the offense can be, it's somewhat injury prone and not good enough to carry a team
- The rotation is about as weak as you'll find in the national league. The only truly dependable guy is an injury risk (J-Patt).
What needs to happen?
- Ownership will need to spend more than $73 million, in my opinion. There are too many holes, and if they go get Barry Zito or another difference making pitcher, it'll go a long way.
- These annual duds like Ortiz, Lawrence, and Armas need to all realize their potential in some near-magical way. It won't happen, but I thought I'd list it anyway.
The point of all this is that Washington made what will probably turn out to be a foolish move today. They could've acquired a multitude of pitching prospects - Florida offered Yusmeiro Petit among others, Anaheim offered Earvin Santana, and the Twins are loaded with talent enough to make the deal. I don't even think '07 played into the decision until Bowden realized he wouldn't get his exorbitant asking price. Now, they might not even re-sign Soriano, and all they'll get out of him is a 1st round draft pick. Not exactly Earvin Santana there, is it? If they do resign him, in all likelihood there won't be playoffs in the Nats' near future, unless ownership allows Bowden to go after some pitching, for better or for worse. The scouting department there has made improvements, but it doesn't look like there's imminent help on the way in terms of pitching (or, really, anything).
How could they have acquired the pitching depth they needed to set themselves up for the longterm? By trading Soriano and using the spare cash from that deal to sign a couple of decent starters to some short contracts. Re-sign Jose Guillen to an incentive laden deal, and have a Kearns/Church/Guillen outfield for much cheaper. The bottom line is that the difference between Alfonso Soriano and who they could replace him with is not as big as the difference between guys like Armas and Ortiz and who they could've replaced them with.
It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out, but if Soriano isn't resigned by October, Bowden should get fired for letting this HUGE opportunity slip away. Not that he'll care - he just wants a higher profile job anyway.
Ok, he's been really good this year, one of the ten best players in the NL. His splits - .286/.363/.587 - are pretty strong coming from someone playing home games in RFK (inconceivably, Soriano plays better in RFK than away), and he plays well against both lefties and righties. Not surprisingly, there was a ton of interest in him by teams that were in the playoff hunt, unlike Washington. There was reported interest from Anaheim, Los Angeles, Minnesota, Seattle, Houston, Florida, Oakland, Detroit, Chicago, and Boston. Needless to say, his market price was the highest it's ever been, and likely ever will be. For Washington not to trade him, they must think they're going to compete next year. Let's try to figure out just how the plan to do that.
C: Brian Schneider - .226/.297/.295 - What happened to this guy? Nobody expected him to be an All-Star but no one expected him to be a black hole of Brad Ausmus proportions. He's no one to count on, that's for sure. There's little chance of trading him - the Nats owe him $12.3 million over the next three years.
1B: Nick Johnson - .302/.435/.534 - Johnson should've gotten an invite to Pittsburgh for the All-Star game, and I thought he was snubbed in favor of homer happy Ryan Howard. Johnson has developed into a less powerful version of Jason Giambi, or else he looks like Giambi in his early years. He's definitely an offensive piece to build around, and they wisely signed him to a 3 year extension which runs through 2009 just before this season. He really won't cost them much, either, at only $16.5 million over 3 years. One of the few smart things Jim Bowden has done.
2B: Jose Vidro - .300/.363/.405 - Vidro appears to be something of a lost cause. He's very good when healthy, but in the rare event he's not on the disabled list, he's still playing with some sort of side effect from an injury. His slugging numbers have died through the years, but the potential is still there. I just wouldn't expect to see it on display much outside a batting cage. Sadly, they still owe Vidro $15.5 million after this season.
SS: Felipe Lopez - .266/.355/.388 - Ok, he's nothing to write home about this year, but I still don't think 2005 was a complete fluke. Lopez has some power and some good skills, and he's just entering his prime. If this year tells us anything, it's to temper our expectations of consistency for him. I'm not sure which year of arbitration he'll be in this offseason, but I think it's the 2nd.
3B: Ryan Zimmerman - .287/.351/.470 - I'll admit, I picked Zim to win the Rookie of the Year this year in the NL, and he's definitely in the race. It's remarkable how consistently he plays against lefties and righties. His defense is the best in the National League, and that's saying a lot when you consider Rolen and Wright.
LF: Alfonso Soriano - He's valuable this year, and his defense isn't as atrocious or team-killing as it would've been at 2B, but will it last? Is 3/5 of a season the outlier here or was the rest of his career, where he never hit well away from Texas? My bet is that he tails off a bit from here on out. He'll cost a pretty penny, though, to keep.
CF: Ryan Church - .250/.368/.511 - Ok, I just can't seriously think the Nats are gonna play Luis Matos in centerfield next year over Church, one of their best players. Granted, keeping Church in the minors early this season is up there with one of Bowden's dumbest moves, but at some point they have to realize what this guy offers, right? Right?
RF: Austin Kearns - .272/.358/.480 - Jose Guillen probably is through with the Nats, seeing as how his contract runs out this year and Kearns is still in arbitration years. His power is still blossoming, and if he can consistently make contact, he'll turn into a great hitter.
SP: Livan Hernandez - They couldn't find any takers for the most worn-out pitcher in baseball, and with $7 million on the hook for next season, I'm not surprised. If the Nats want at all to compete, Livan will have to bounce back.
SP: John Patterson - 2006 has been a lost season for Patterson. Really, all he can smile about is that he pitched pretty well when he was healthy enough to take the mound, totaling 42 K's and 9 BBs in 40.2 innings this year. He'll have to return from surgery well to make the Nats a contender.
SP: Ramon Ortiz - Really? Ramon Ortiz? There's a mutual option on him for next year for $4.55 million, and I figure if they'll let this guy near a mound these days, they'll let him do it again next year.
SP: Tony Armas - Ok, Tony, you've reached the Jeff Weaver point, where potential starts to mean much less and what you do on the field suddenly becomes glaringly clear. Sure, he could break out, but it's much more likely he'll either break down or help some opposing hitters break out instead. He's never been more than league-average, despite all the potential he's had.
SP: Brian Lawrence - The Nats can re-up him for $5.7 million, and he's certainly not worth it. What that means is that they'll probably pick up the option.
Closer:
Chad Cordero - He's not quite at that level where he's lights out all the time, but he could definitely reach the point one day. Actually, he SHOULD reach that point.
Mo Money Mo Problems
Ok, so let's see what Bowden's on the books for next year already:
Jose Vidro - $7.5 mil
Cristian Guzman - $4.2
Nick Johnson - $5.5
Brian Schneider - $3.5
Marlon Anderson - $.925
Livan Hernandez - $7.0
Luis Ayala - $1.3
Total - $29.925 million.
Ok, now let's assume in arbitration Kearns gets a raise to roughly, oh, $4.50 million.
That'll put this payroll at around $35 million.
Next, let's assume Bowden does one of his stupid, stupid, offseason signings, and gives $4 million to someone like Vinny Castilla or Cristian Guzman or Brian Schneider, who won't help at all: $39 mil
Let's say they resign Soriano to play the outfield. At cheapest, it'll cost them $12 million per. Most likely, it'll be around 14 per and start around 11. That'll push the payroll to $50 million or so.
Resigning Soriano and allotting for a patented dumb Bowden move means that 10 players will make $50 million dollars, or 79% of the opening day 2006 payroll. Let's say ownership decides to increase payroll by $10 million in the first year. That still leaves $23 million for 15 more players, including 4 starting pitchers and more guys going through arbitration.
Basically, unless one of several things happens, I can't see the Nats being a contender next year, for these reasons:
- As good as the offense can be, it's somewhat injury prone and not good enough to carry a team
- The rotation is about as weak as you'll find in the national league. The only truly dependable guy is an injury risk (J-Patt).
What needs to happen?
- Ownership will need to spend more than $73 million, in my opinion. There are too many holes, and if they go get Barry Zito or another difference making pitcher, it'll go a long way.
- These annual duds like Ortiz, Lawrence, and Armas need to all realize their potential in some near-magical way. It won't happen, but I thought I'd list it anyway.
The point of all this is that Washington made what will probably turn out to be a foolish move today. They could've acquired a multitude of pitching prospects - Florida offered Yusmeiro Petit among others, Anaheim offered Earvin Santana, and the Twins are loaded with talent enough to make the deal. I don't even think '07 played into the decision until Bowden realized he wouldn't get his exorbitant asking price. Now, they might not even re-sign Soriano, and all they'll get out of him is a 1st round draft pick. Not exactly Earvin Santana there, is it? If they do resign him, in all likelihood there won't be playoffs in the Nats' near future, unless ownership allows Bowden to go after some pitching, for better or for worse. The scouting department there has made improvements, but it doesn't look like there's imminent help on the way in terms of pitching (or, really, anything).
How could they have acquired the pitching depth they needed to set themselves up for the longterm? By trading Soriano and using the spare cash from that deal to sign a couple of decent starters to some short contracts. Re-sign Jose Guillen to an incentive laden deal, and have a Kearns/Church/Guillen outfield for much cheaper. The bottom line is that the difference between Alfonso Soriano and who they could replace him with is not as big as the difference between guys like Armas and Ortiz and who they could've replaced them with.
It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out, but if Soriano isn't resigned by October, Bowden should get fired for letting this HUGE opportunity slip away. Not that he'll care - he just wants a higher profile job anyway.
posted by Brent Blackwell at 10:42 PM
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