August 1 blues
Sigh, it's sinking in. The most active part of the trade season is over, and while yesterday's post was centered on the amazement over Jim Bowden's incredulous decision to hold onto Alfonso Soriano, I can't ignore the 11 deals that actually did go through. Here's my take on winners and losers:
1. Reds get: Rheal Cormier - The Reds are now officially obsessed with the bullpen. Honestly, I thought they'd done enough lately in terms of the pen. In fact, more than enough. The Guardado deal is what they needed, and the Kearns deal, while terrible considering what they gave up, at least netted two decent relievers. Now, they get Cormier, the 39 year old reliever who has been really good this year. Well, his results have all been good. Cormier himself has been mostly lucky. It's hard to credit a pitcher with a 1:1 K to BB ratio with his success. He's never had great stuff, but he has good accuracy, and gets plenty of ground balls. He should be ok for them, but not great.
Phils get: Justin Germano - Germano hasn't been very effective this year, but could one day be a starter for Philadelphia. Right now, though, it doesn't seem highly likely. He doesn't walk too many batters, doesn't strike too many out, and really doesn't do anything spectacularly. He's an extreme groundballer whose luck hasn't been too good this year.
WINNER: Push - The Reds get a lefty who knows how to pitch without giving up anything major. The Phils unload an old player and get something in return.
2. Tigers get Sean Casey - You know, I'm not all that excited about this deal. Sure, Chris Shelton hasn't been very good since April but Shelton's worst is as good as Casey period, I think. Won't this trip to AAA stunt his growth? Sean Casey doesn't do much with the bat, especially at first base, and really won't provide anything of value other than leadership. Then again, Jim Leyland gets greatness out of good players, so maybe he can get goodness out of a pretty mediocre player.
Pirates get Brian Rogers - Rogers wasn't a huge prospect in the Detroit system, but he was certainly pitching well this year. He allowed a .210/.257/.322 split this year, which is very good. Temper the excitement, though, since he's a 24 year old in AA, but the numbers are impressive. He rarely issues walks and strikes out more than 1 per inning. Honestly, he might be able to immediately go into the Pirates' bullpen and succeed. They've got nothing to lose, except more games, but they're fine with that.
WINNER: Pittsburgh. Casey makes entirely too much money and they got rid of a subpar first baseman, get an older prospect with a great performance this year, and now have the option of promoting Brad Eldred if they want, although he might need some more time.
3. Reds get Kyle Lohse - That's right, the Reds got more bullpen help. This is getting ridiculous. Lohse can start if Cincy needs him to, and he could be good in the pen, being a 3 pitch pitcher with plus stuff. He's terribly inconsistent, and it seems like his early power pitching days might be over. Like I said, maybe the bullpen work is what the doctor ordered.
Twins get Zach Ward - Last year's 3rd round pick by Cincy, Ward was blowing through low A ball. As a 22 year old, he's expected to be ahead of the curve, but let's not downplay what he's doing. In 113.7 innings, he has allowed a .187/.275/.258 split and struck out 95. He also carries the title of extreme groundballer. The Twins know how to bring along prospects, and he'll thrive in that system.
WINNER: Minnesota - While Lohse could turn out to be a very good reliever, Ward is a young prospect with a good bit of talent and great results. Ward even played his home games in a hitters park at Dayton.
4. Mets get Oliver Perez - We all know what Perez CAN do, but I'm convinced no one, not even Perez, knows what he WILL do. He's capable of giving you either of these two stat lines:
IP H R BB K
8 3 0 1 11
3 6 7 6 6
Enjoy, Met fans. Enjoy. He's capable of churning out that first stat line on a consistent basis again, and he's been great in the minors. Rick Peterson is good at what he does, but with Oliver he'll have his work cut out for him.
Mets get Roberto Hernandez - I don't really know how much closer to the end of a career someone can be. It seems like it's been 30 years since he was a closer for the White Sox. I can understand the need to get a reliever though, with Duaner Sanchez' injury. Still, the Mets aren't in dire straits by any means. Darren Oliver is one of the best relievers in the majors this year and Wagner is the kind of guy you need in the playoffs, even if he's vastly overpaid. Hernandez will provide decent but not great setup work for them.
Pirates get Xavier Nady - Nady has great power, but he struggles with contact and with right handers, so I'm not sure he's a great longterm option for Pitt. Nady is 27, so there's still a chance he could break out soon. This year is a quasi-breakout, but I think in NY it was a bit overhyped by the media.
WINNER: New York - Whether he realizes it or not, Oliver Perez' potential alone is enough reason to trade Nady, not to mention getting a reliever for the postseason. Great move for the Mets.
5. Rangers get Matt Stairs - Another good hitter's hitter for the stretch run. He gets on base, will hit a few homers, and comes cheap. It's the sort of addition smart teams make for the stretch run. You know this irritates Billy Beane, for someone else in the division to be smart with their decisions.
Royals get Joselo Diaz - Gosh, this guy would be really good if he could harness that fastball. His numbers, despite wildness, are pretty good - 64 innings, 75 K's, .198/.337/.275 splits, but 42 walks. The Royals have done a great job of adding pitching talent to their minor league system, and Diaz is the latest find. He's not ready for prime time, but if he learns control... big things are to come.
WINNER: Push. Smart trade from both sides. Very smart.
6. Padres get Todd Walker - I can remember when I thought Walker would be a great player. I thought he'd be a 200 hit guy for the Twins. It didn't pan out, but he's not terrible. He still makes solid contact and he has decent discipline, but if he is San Diego's answer at 3B, they're not going to be satisfied. At 2nd, though terrible defensively, he's pretty solid offensively. At 3rd, though, he's probably below average. The Padres may see it a little different though, in that he has value simply by not being named Vinny Castilla. That in itself might recharge this lineup.
Cubs get Jose Ceda - Too early to tell on him, but so far so good. At 19, he's doing what he should in the Arizona League; in 23 innings, he's given up only 1 homer, struck out 31, and walked 13. The scouting report on him says he needs to learn some offspeed pitches, so he's clearly several years away, but those strikout numbers mean he's got some great natural talent that could develop well.
WINNER - Push. Slight edge to the Padres for getting a guy who will help any offense he's in, but Ceda has one heck of an arm.
7. Yankees get Craig Wilson - I guess the Yankees should look toward the state of Pennsylvania any time they need some help, because the price will never be steep. They got Abreu for nothing, and now Wilson? Brian Cashman must be a hypnotist. Wilson will help the Yankees immensely, especially in the role he'll play down the stretch as a part time guy.
Pirates get Shawn Chacon - Seriously, I can't do anything but laugh at this transaction, so let me, in less than 10 words, say all there is to say about Chacon:
Last... year... lucky... this... year... reality... future... in... Pitt... worse
WINNER - The Yankees, no contest. No surprise, with the regime in Pittsburgh.
8. Rangers get Kip Wells - I really couldn't tell you what anyone would want in Wells right now. Honestly, I'm baffled. He's got talent, but he's been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year. The AL West's walk rate just went up.
Pirates get Jesse Chavez - Chavez, a minor league power reliever, with 73 K's in 61 innings, has some control issues, and may not be able to dominate like this at an upper level, but there's upside.
WINNER - Pittsburgh - any time you can convince an organization to take Kip Wells and his money off your hands and give you a prospect with any sort of upside, you've won.
9. Dodgers get Greg Maddux - This ain't the Maddux of '95. Heck, it ain't even the Maddux of '04. He'll do better in Chavez Ravine than Wrigley, in fact a lot better, but he's not the difference maker he once was. An old Greg Maddux is still a better option than a lot of guys in their prime.
Cubs get Cesar Izturis - I really like Izturis' defense, and now the Cubs can return him to his natural position at SS, replacing the atrocious Ronny Cedeno. Regular playing time is all that keeps him from being the next Omar Vizquel.
WINNER - I feel surprised saying this, but the Cubs. While Maddux will pitch well in LA, Izturis is a big, big step up for the Cubs at SS. His defense should shave some runs off the scoreboard and while he's not a great hitter, he'll be more helpful than Cedeno.
10. Dodgers get Julio Lugo - Lugo brings his doubles/steals game to the Ravine, where it'll definitely help. He's got a great glove, but a weak arm, and that should mean a nice transition to 2B. He might just be the sparkplug the last place Dodgers needed - they already have moved into 4th in the West - and if nothing else he'll give them a 1st round draft pick if he leaves via free agency.
D-Rays get Joel Guzman - It's surprising that the biggest prospect to change hands in the entire trade deadline week was in return for Julio Lugo. Guzman could be very, very good one day. At Las Vegas this year, he's .297/.353/.461 with 11 HR. The power is returning after disappearing last year, and some scouting reports compare him to Miguel Cabrera. Now, to think he'll be up there with Delmon and Upton in a year or two? Scary.
D-Rays get Sergio Pedroza - First off, let me say Guzman should've been enough for Julio Lugo. That the Dodgers threw in Pedroza, he of a .969 OPS this year in rookie ball, is downright silly. He's a long way off, but he's on the right track.
WINNER - Tampa Bay - The though of adding Joel Guzman, even if he has no position yet, freeing salary, and opening up a spot for BJ Upton, all in one move? I like it.
11. Royals get Ryan Shealy & Scott Dohmann - Shealy finally gets a chance. Since Ryan Howard got playing time last year, Shealy has occupied my top spot on the Best Blocked Players list. This guy could be very good in Kansas City at 1B, and he'll definitely hold the spot well until Huber arrives for good. Shealy has a lot of power potential and reminds some scouts of a young Derrek Lee. As for Dohmann, a flyball pitcher like him will be happy to get away from Coors. He could easily become a key Royals reliever this season.
Rockies get Jeremy Affeldt and Denny Bautista - Affeldt is the big name of the trade, and he has amazing potential. Unfortunately, he can't stay healthy or consistent, and Colorado won't help the latter. He's still learning to force those groundballs, but the improvement he's made is encouraging. He should be a fine fit in Colorado if they can get consistency from him like they have from Jeff Francis. Those two could be a very underrated pair for '07. Bautista is the groundball strikeout pitcher the Rockies have needed. Put a good defense behind him, give him some run support and some confidence and he'll be fantastic. His arm is unbelievable.
WINNER - Push - A really good trade for both sides. KC may have given up a future ace in Bautista, but they got a great power hitter with Shealy.
Overall winners - Kansas City - You know, I can't describe a single transaction they made this month as a poor decision, and they've made few. The two today were both helpful, and the Royals are setting themselves up nicely for the future.
- New York Yankees - I'm not used to NY making such smart deals. It's refreshing, and they're validating my theory that they are the true team to beat in the AL.
Overall losers - Pittsburgh - They may have come away winners in two trades, but they were such big losers in the other two that this is pretty obvious. They get rid of Oliver Perez and Craig Wilson and get ZERO prospects in return. ZERO. Pathetic, Littlefield, pathetic. What a waste of a big league ballclub. Only the Orioles are spinning their wheels quite like the Pirates. I have such a disdain for the Pirates' management, you'd think I was a Pirates fan. I'm not, but I feel bad for all the fans that do have to put up with meaningless seasons where Littlefield talks up the Randas, Caseys, Redmans, and Wells. Next up are the Nadys and Chacons, I suppose.
1. Reds get: Rheal Cormier - The Reds are now officially obsessed with the bullpen. Honestly, I thought they'd done enough lately in terms of the pen. In fact, more than enough. The Guardado deal is what they needed, and the Kearns deal, while terrible considering what they gave up, at least netted two decent relievers. Now, they get Cormier, the 39 year old reliever who has been really good this year. Well, his results have all been good. Cormier himself has been mostly lucky. It's hard to credit a pitcher with a 1:1 K to BB ratio with his success. He's never had great stuff, but he has good accuracy, and gets plenty of ground balls. He should be ok for them, but not great.
Phils get: Justin Germano - Germano hasn't been very effective this year, but could one day be a starter for Philadelphia. Right now, though, it doesn't seem highly likely. He doesn't walk too many batters, doesn't strike too many out, and really doesn't do anything spectacularly. He's an extreme groundballer whose luck hasn't been too good this year.
WINNER: Push - The Reds get a lefty who knows how to pitch without giving up anything major. The Phils unload an old player and get something in return.
2. Tigers get Sean Casey - You know, I'm not all that excited about this deal. Sure, Chris Shelton hasn't been very good since April but Shelton's worst is as good as Casey period, I think. Won't this trip to AAA stunt his growth? Sean Casey doesn't do much with the bat, especially at first base, and really won't provide anything of value other than leadership. Then again, Jim Leyland gets greatness out of good players, so maybe he can get goodness out of a pretty mediocre player.
Pirates get Brian Rogers - Rogers wasn't a huge prospect in the Detroit system, but he was certainly pitching well this year. He allowed a .210/.257/.322 split this year, which is very good. Temper the excitement, though, since he's a 24 year old in AA, but the numbers are impressive. He rarely issues walks and strikes out more than 1 per inning. Honestly, he might be able to immediately go into the Pirates' bullpen and succeed. They've got nothing to lose, except more games, but they're fine with that.
WINNER: Pittsburgh. Casey makes entirely too much money and they got rid of a subpar first baseman, get an older prospect with a great performance this year, and now have the option of promoting Brad Eldred if they want, although he might need some more time.
3. Reds get Kyle Lohse - That's right, the Reds got more bullpen help. This is getting ridiculous. Lohse can start if Cincy needs him to, and he could be good in the pen, being a 3 pitch pitcher with plus stuff. He's terribly inconsistent, and it seems like his early power pitching days might be over. Like I said, maybe the bullpen work is what the doctor ordered.
Twins get Zach Ward - Last year's 3rd round pick by Cincy, Ward was blowing through low A ball. As a 22 year old, he's expected to be ahead of the curve, but let's not downplay what he's doing. In 113.7 innings, he has allowed a .187/.275/.258 split and struck out 95. He also carries the title of extreme groundballer. The Twins know how to bring along prospects, and he'll thrive in that system.
WINNER: Minnesota - While Lohse could turn out to be a very good reliever, Ward is a young prospect with a good bit of talent and great results. Ward even played his home games in a hitters park at Dayton.
4. Mets get Oliver Perez - We all know what Perez CAN do, but I'm convinced no one, not even Perez, knows what he WILL do. He's capable of giving you either of these two stat lines:
IP H R BB K
8 3 0 1 11
3 6 7 6 6
Enjoy, Met fans. Enjoy. He's capable of churning out that first stat line on a consistent basis again, and he's been great in the minors. Rick Peterson is good at what he does, but with Oliver he'll have his work cut out for him.
Mets get Roberto Hernandez - I don't really know how much closer to the end of a career someone can be. It seems like it's been 30 years since he was a closer for the White Sox. I can understand the need to get a reliever though, with Duaner Sanchez' injury. Still, the Mets aren't in dire straits by any means. Darren Oliver is one of the best relievers in the majors this year and Wagner is the kind of guy you need in the playoffs, even if he's vastly overpaid. Hernandez will provide decent but not great setup work for them.
Pirates get Xavier Nady - Nady has great power, but he struggles with contact and with right handers, so I'm not sure he's a great longterm option for Pitt. Nady is 27, so there's still a chance he could break out soon. This year is a quasi-breakout, but I think in NY it was a bit overhyped by the media.
WINNER: New York - Whether he realizes it or not, Oliver Perez' potential alone is enough reason to trade Nady, not to mention getting a reliever for the postseason. Great move for the Mets.
5. Rangers get Matt Stairs - Another good hitter's hitter for the stretch run. He gets on base, will hit a few homers, and comes cheap. It's the sort of addition smart teams make for the stretch run. You know this irritates Billy Beane, for someone else in the division to be smart with their decisions.
Royals get Joselo Diaz - Gosh, this guy would be really good if he could harness that fastball. His numbers, despite wildness, are pretty good - 64 innings, 75 K's, .198/.337/.275 splits, but 42 walks. The Royals have done a great job of adding pitching talent to their minor league system, and Diaz is the latest find. He's not ready for prime time, but if he learns control... big things are to come.
WINNER: Push. Smart trade from both sides. Very smart.
6. Padres get Todd Walker - I can remember when I thought Walker would be a great player. I thought he'd be a 200 hit guy for the Twins. It didn't pan out, but he's not terrible. He still makes solid contact and he has decent discipline, but if he is San Diego's answer at 3B, they're not going to be satisfied. At 2nd, though terrible defensively, he's pretty solid offensively. At 3rd, though, he's probably below average. The Padres may see it a little different though, in that he has value simply by not being named Vinny Castilla. That in itself might recharge this lineup.
Cubs get Jose Ceda - Too early to tell on him, but so far so good. At 19, he's doing what he should in the Arizona League; in 23 innings, he's given up only 1 homer, struck out 31, and walked 13. The scouting report on him says he needs to learn some offspeed pitches, so he's clearly several years away, but those strikout numbers mean he's got some great natural talent that could develop well.
WINNER - Push. Slight edge to the Padres for getting a guy who will help any offense he's in, but Ceda has one heck of an arm.
7. Yankees get Craig Wilson - I guess the Yankees should look toward the state of Pennsylvania any time they need some help, because the price will never be steep. They got Abreu for nothing, and now Wilson? Brian Cashman must be a hypnotist. Wilson will help the Yankees immensely, especially in the role he'll play down the stretch as a part time guy.
Pirates get Shawn Chacon - Seriously, I can't do anything but laugh at this transaction, so let me, in less than 10 words, say all there is to say about Chacon:
Last... year... lucky... this... year... reality... future... in... Pitt... worse
WINNER - The Yankees, no contest. No surprise, with the regime in Pittsburgh.
8. Rangers get Kip Wells - I really couldn't tell you what anyone would want in Wells right now. Honestly, I'm baffled. He's got talent, but he's been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year. The AL West's walk rate just went up.
Pirates get Jesse Chavez - Chavez, a minor league power reliever, with 73 K's in 61 innings, has some control issues, and may not be able to dominate like this at an upper level, but there's upside.
WINNER - Pittsburgh - any time you can convince an organization to take Kip Wells and his money off your hands and give you a prospect with any sort of upside, you've won.
9. Dodgers get Greg Maddux - This ain't the Maddux of '95. Heck, it ain't even the Maddux of '04. He'll do better in Chavez Ravine than Wrigley, in fact a lot better, but he's not the difference maker he once was. An old Greg Maddux is still a better option than a lot of guys in their prime.
Cubs get Cesar Izturis - I really like Izturis' defense, and now the Cubs can return him to his natural position at SS, replacing the atrocious Ronny Cedeno. Regular playing time is all that keeps him from being the next Omar Vizquel.
WINNER - I feel surprised saying this, but the Cubs. While Maddux will pitch well in LA, Izturis is a big, big step up for the Cubs at SS. His defense should shave some runs off the scoreboard and while he's not a great hitter, he'll be more helpful than Cedeno.
10. Dodgers get Julio Lugo - Lugo brings his doubles/steals game to the Ravine, where it'll definitely help. He's got a great glove, but a weak arm, and that should mean a nice transition to 2B. He might just be the sparkplug the last place Dodgers needed - they already have moved into 4th in the West - and if nothing else he'll give them a 1st round draft pick if he leaves via free agency.
D-Rays get Joel Guzman - It's surprising that the biggest prospect to change hands in the entire trade deadline week was in return for Julio Lugo. Guzman could be very, very good one day. At Las Vegas this year, he's .297/.353/.461 with 11 HR. The power is returning after disappearing last year, and some scouting reports compare him to Miguel Cabrera. Now, to think he'll be up there with Delmon and Upton in a year or two? Scary.
D-Rays get Sergio Pedroza - First off, let me say Guzman should've been enough for Julio Lugo. That the Dodgers threw in Pedroza, he of a .969 OPS this year in rookie ball, is downright silly. He's a long way off, but he's on the right track.
WINNER - Tampa Bay - The though of adding Joel Guzman, even if he has no position yet, freeing salary, and opening up a spot for BJ Upton, all in one move? I like it.
11. Royals get Ryan Shealy & Scott Dohmann - Shealy finally gets a chance. Since Ryan Howard got playing time last year, Shealy has occupied my top spot on the Best Blocked Players list. This guy could be very good in Kansas City at 1B, and he'll definitely hold the spot well until Huber arrives for good. Shealy has a lot of power potential and reminds some scouts of a young Derrek Lee. As for Dohmann, a flyball pitcher like him will be happy to get away from Coors. He could easily become a key Royals reliever this season.
Rockies get Jeremy Affeldt and Denny Bautista - Affeldt is the big name of the trade, and he has amazing potential. Unfortunately, he can't stay healthy or consistent, and Colorado won't help the latter. He's still learning to force those groundballs, but the improvement he's made is encouraging. He should be a fine fit in Colorado if they can get consistency from him like they have from Jeff Francis. Those two could be a very underrated pair for '07. Bautista is the groundball strikeout pitcher the Rockies have needed. Put a good defense behind him, give him some run support and some confidence and he'll be fantastic. His arm is unbelievable.
WINNER - Push - A really good trade for both sides. KC may have given up a future ace in Bautista, but they got a great power hitter with Shealy.
Overall winners - Kansas City - You know, I can't describe a single transaction they made this month as a poor decision, and they've made few. The two today were both helpful, and the Royals are setting themselves up nicely for the future.
- New York Yankees - I'm not used to NY making such smart deals. It's refreshing, and they're validating my theory that they are the true team to beat in the AL.
Overall losers - Pittsburgh - They may have come away winners in two trades, but they were such big losers in the other two that this is pretty obvious. They get rid of Oliver Perez and Craig Wilson and get ZERO prospects in return. ZERO. Pathetic, Littlefield, pathetic. What a waste of a big league ballclub. Only the Orioles are spinning their wheels quite like the Pirates. I have such a disdain for the Pirates' management, you'd think I was a Pirates fan. I'm not, but I feel bad for all the fans that do have to put up with meaningless seasons where Littlefield talks up the Randas, Caseys, Redmans, and Wells. Next up are the Nadys and Chacons, I suppose.
posted by Brent Blackwell at 11:44 PM
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